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Sunday, October 21, 2018
“Instead of relying on central banks as the foundation of my risk mitigation strategy, I plan to remain committed to my absolute return process and discipline.” –Eric Cinnamond [REITs] See 2017 Hedge Fund Letters. The world’s oldest investment philosophy, buy […]
In early February, the markets experienced some turmoil. Volatility spiked, stocks sold off roughly 10% and credit spreads widened. These were strange events given that over the prior 15 months the total return for the S&P 500 was positive each […]
U.S. Treasury securities across the maturity spectrum are reaching yield resistance levels that have proven for decades to be extremely valuable to investors engaged in technical analysis. We believe it is possible the reaction of interest rates to these resistance […]
Stability breeds instability.” – Hyman Minsky The answer to the title of this article, the polite version of which is “Buy The Dip or Sell The Rally”, may well be the most important question facing stock investors this year and […]
You load sixteen tons, what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go I owe my soul to the company store” – Sixteen Tons by Tennessee Ernie Ford Shortly […]
Imagine a world with two investment options, apples and oranges. Investors are best served to reduce their holdings of apples and to replace them with oranges when demand for apples drives the price too high. The simple logic in this […]
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased the Fed Funds rate by 125 basis points or 1.25% since 2015, which had little effect on bonds until recently. Of late, however, yields on longer-maturity bonds have begun to rise, contributing to anxiety […]
Most investors, knowingly or not, rely on long-only, passive strategies. They may shift holdings between stocks, bonds, and cash at various intervals, but generally, their portfolio returns mimic those of well-known stock and bond indices. A recent graph from Goldman […]
Last Friday, Gross Domestic Product (GDP or the domestic economic growth rate) for the fourth quarter of 2017 was released. Despite being 0.3% short of expectations at 2.6% annual growth, it nonetheless produced enthusiasm as witnessed by the S&P 500 […]
In the past month, two well-known and highly respected money managers have made confident assertions about the markets. Their comments would lead one to believe that the future path of the market in the coming months is known. Sadly, many […]
