Value Defined: An Interview with Value Investor Eric Cinnamond
“Instead of relying on central banks as the foundation of my risk mitigation strategy, I plan to remain committed to my absolute return process and…
Read MoreArticles by Michael Lebowitz
Contours Of The Correction
In early February, the markets experienced some turmoil. Volatility spiked, stocks sold off roughly 10% and credit spreads widened. These were strange events given that…
Fasten Your Seat Belt, Turbulence Ahead
U.S. Treasury securities across the maturity spectrum are reaching yield resistance levels that have proven for decades to be extremely valuable to investors engaged in…
BTFD or STFR?
Stability breeds instability.” – Hyman Minsky The answer to the title of this article, the polite version of which is “Buy The Dip or Sell…
Trump’s Volley – Hoover’s Folly?
You load sixteen tons, what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go…
Occasionally The evidence becomes too obvious to ignore
Imagine a world with two investment options, apples and oranges. Investors are best served to reduce their holdings of apples and to replace them with…
Deficits Do Matter
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has increased the Fed Funds rate by 125 basis points or 1.25% since 2015, which had little effect on bonds until…
Strategies For Tomorrow
Most investors, knowingly or not, rely on long-only, passive strategies. They may shift holdings between stocks, bonds, and cash at various intervals, but generally, their…
Will The “Real” Real GDP Please Stand Up?
Last Friday, Gross Domestic Product (GDP or the domestic economic growth rate) for the fourth quarter of 2017 was released. Despite being 0.3% short of…
Peak Hubris And The Known Future
In the past month, two well-known and highly respected money managers have made confident assertions about the markets. Their comments would lead one to believe…
The Next Maestro
The following article emphasizes that the perceived economic prosperity of recent decades is largely the result of political expediency. Those in charge of monetary policy…
A Market Valuation That Defies Comparison
Comparing current equity valuations to prior valuation peaks such as those of 2008, 1999 or any other period is commonplace, but remains an essential way…
For Your Consideration
Consider the following: [REITs] The current U.S. economic expansion has lasted 103 months and counting. Based on data since 1945 covering 11 business cycles, the…
The Only Benchmark Of Wealth
The New England Patriots are the winningest professional football team of the new millennia. While we could post a long list of reasons for their…
Investment Outlook 2018 – Outlier scenarios
The following outlook provides our investment thoughts for the coming year. We did not include specific recommended asset allocation weightings for the major asset classes,…