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When Will The Attack Begin?

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The Russian armed forces amassed along the border are just about ready to invade Ukraine, a Western neighbor and former fellow member of the Soviet Union. If the Russians do launch an attack, when will it begin? Perhaps the most likely date would be Monday, February 21st, or a little later in the week.

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Do I have secret intelligence? Well if I do, I’ve just let the cat out of the bag.

When The Russian Armed Forces Will Attack Ukraine

Basically, there are two reasons why the attack will begin during the last week in February. First, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not want to upset his pal, Xi Jinping, the dictator of China, who has set his cap on pulling off a very successful Winter Olympics. Even invading Ukraine is not important enough to shift the world’s focus from this spectacular sorting event.

The second reason the Russian army will attack during the last week in February is that by early March the ground will begin to thaw, making their tanks and armored personnel carriers much more difficult to maneuver. The Ukrainian forces, which are hunkered down in defensive positions, will be largely unaffected by the muddy roads and fields.

For days before an actual invasion, the Russians will soften up the Ukrainian defenses by launching a huge artillery and aerial bombardment. From the day the first shells, missiles and bombs begin falling until a land invasion is fully underway, the Russian forces will be on a very tight schedule.

When the attack does come, the Ukrainian defenders will do everything possible to stall the Russian attackers until the ground literally shifts under them. That said, mud or no mud, the Russians have the Ukrainians very seriously outmanned and outgunned. Within a week they will have made major inroads.

Should the Russians not attack during the last week of this month, then day-by-day, an attack will grow increasingly less likely. Still, there is no way that Putin will simply withdraw his forces from the Ukrainian border without getting something from Ukraine.

My own prediction is that as a minimum, Putin will opt to carve out another hunk of Ukrainian territory, most likely in Eastern Ukraine, and then either install a puppet government or annex the area as part of the growing Russian Empire.