Turner’s Take: Crop Ratings Lower Than Expected

Updated on

The latest commentary on crop ratings from Craig Turner, senior commodities broker with StoneX Financial Inc., Daniels Trading Division.


Corn ratings fell 3% to 58% GD/EX with 16% rated poor/very poor Corn is leading the grain markets higher today as analysts adjust yields lower.

US spring wheat GD/EX ratings fell 6% to 64% yesterday due to drought conditions in ND and SD Trade estimates are coming out for Friday’s WASDE with the average corn yield at 175.9 bpa.

The N. Plains are drying in the 6-10 day models but the SE is wetter. The eastern corn belt (ECB) continues to get rain and will boost yields in IL, IN, and OH Corn should lead wheat higher today on weather and yield concerns in the US western corn belt (WCB).

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Ships exporting Ukraine grain through the Black Sea will be protected by a 10 nautical mile buffer zone, according to the agreement by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.

All parties are now working out written procedures for shipping and insurance companies to resume operations in the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhny.

Since the grain corridor opened, 10 ships have left with corn, soybeans, sunflower oil and meal. More importantly, two empty vessels have traveled to Ukraine to collect shipments.

It will be interesting to see if the USDA reduces US/EU production while increasing Black Sea exports in the WASDE report on Friday.


The US soybean crop is rated 59% GD/EX, down 1% from last week. The trade is looking for a 51.1 bpa in the WASDE on Friday and stocks to tighten Soy is leading canola and palm higher this morning.

Crude is also stronger and testing $92. Reports from the field suggest larger than trend bumper crop but frost risk remains until harvest.

Soy should lead oilseeds higher today due to yesterday's crop ratings decline and continued hot/dry weather for the US N. Plains and WCB.

The US Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act yesterday and it should be supportive for vegetable oil for years to come.

The spending bill includes $369 billion for energy and extends the existing biodiesel and renewable diesel tax incentives through 2024. The bill also funds new biofuel infrastructure and agriculture project market expansion through 2031  

Vegetable oil for renewable biodiesel is alive and well and should continue to be supportive for oilseeds globally.

Traders should look to buy the breaks in vegetable oil or look for long-term plays farther out in the curve where prices are lower.