S&P 500 not only refused to rally, but crashed on high volume driven by banking sector (news and regional banks). Even some tech names ripe for a downswing joined – not only that 3,958 was broken, but so was the next 3,910 key support.
Seeing the overnight action made me a bit cautious, but from a swing trading point of view, it had been worth waiting for the probably hot NFPs figure (regardless of the Challenger ones showing progressing weakness) – even if the initial reaction to a strong figure had gone in the opposite direction, I expect the sellers to come and battle it out today still.
Worse risk – especially given the bearish factor of ever shrinking liquidity (M2 money supply) – is what happens regarding any SVIB bailout rumor mill. Medium-term, the table is set, and Powell has been clear on inflation fight, and such a guessing game as we‘re witnessing today, really needn‘t have played out this much.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
3,915 is the "point of control" switching the daily outlook back towards the bears as regards momentum. The 3,945 – 3,958 zone must hold, and the latest moves are highly encouraging for the bears today already.
The risk-off turn in credit markets should continue, and that‘s most essential for stock market bears even as TLT is predictably treading water for now.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
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