Retail Sales Continue Uptrend

Retail Sales Continue Uptrend

“Davidson” submits:

Retail Sales continue in a strong uptrend and have a good correlation to Single-Family Housing activity. Once the monthly supply of New Homes for Sale(Single-Family) ($XHB)crosses above 6mos of Supply, Retail Sales begin to slow markedly.

It has to do with bank lending slowing down in the mtg arena

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I placed both Retail Sales and the recent Monthly Supply of New Homes for Sale charts below.

Screen Shot 2015-11-19 at 2.39.30 PMScreen Shot 2015-11-19 at 2.39.36 PM


We are nowhere close to slowing Retail Sales and credit for mtg lending is expanding. At the current pace, it looks like we have 5yr+ of expansion ahead. Geopolitical events have generally had a greater impact on short term market psychology (short term market prices) ($SPY) and little impact on economic trends. This holds unless a major power lobs missals at the US. There would be a significant effect if the US mobilized to respond to an aggressor.

Even if ISIS lands an attack in the US, it does not qualify as such an event. 9/11 was a great shock, but economic activity was not slowed. The recovery from recession in the US began the month of the World Trade Ctr attack even though markets did not turn around till 12mo later Sept 2002.

Updated on

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.
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