Former president Donald Trump may be a bit overly optimistic for believing that his presidency will be restored by August. But with some luck, he has a shot in January 2023, or possibly even sooner.
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Many psychiatrists believe that Trump is progressively losing his mind. Perhaps he truly believes that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him. Clearly, he has convinced tens of millions of his ardent followers that he was actually reelected in 2020.
The Federal Government Was Nearly Overthrown on January 6th
You may have heard the scuttlebutt that he will run for a seat in the House of Representatives in November 2022, presumably in some Congressional district in Florida. Indeed, there will be growing speculation that he will claim the seat that may soon be vacated by Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz.
Once in Congress, Trump will run for House Speaker, whether or not the current House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy steps down. To understand why becoming House Speaker could be so important to Trump, you need to consider the presidential line of succession.
Under President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence would have stepped into the presidency if Trump had died or become incapacitated. Second in line was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat. And third was Iowa Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley, who was the Senate president pro tempore.
During the January 6th insurrection resulting in the takeover of the Capitol Building, the mob was threatening to hang Mike Pence and trying to hunt down Nancy Pelosi. Even Chuck Grassley was in imminent danger.
Please keep in mind just how close the insurrectionists roaming the Capitol building actually came to overthrowing the American government. Mike Pence escaped down a staircase seconds before the mob reached his hiding place. Members of the mob, some of whom had been tipped off about where to find Nancy Pelosi, nearly got to her before her rescue by the Capital Police. And even Chuck Grassley, might have met an unkind fate had he been captured.
It is conceivable that we came quite close to a bloodbath leaving many members of Congress dead. Perhaps President Trump would not have then been wrong to have ordered Marshal Law. Then he might then have declared himself president for life.
The Path to the Presidency May Run Through the House
The next Congressional elections will not be held until November 2022. But there will be some vacancies well before then. As a Florida resident, Trump – if he should decide to run for a House seat — would run in that state.
Given Representative Matt Gaetz’s growing legal jeopardy, there is a high likelihood that his seat will be vacant in a matter of months, and that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will appoint a replacement before a special election is held. As Trump’s bootlicker-in-chief in the state — if not in the entire nation — DeSantis would leap at the chance to demonstrate his fealty by appointing Trump to fill the vacancy.
When a special election is held a few months later, Trump would be a shoe-in to win the office in his own right. He would then be in place to challenge Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy for his post. And given the ex-president’s overwhelming support among House Republicans, McCarthy would probably bow to the inevitable without a fight.
Still, all of this would be for naught unless, over the next ten or twelve months, the Republicans attain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. At the moment, the Democrats have a razor-thin margin of five seats. It would appear to be highly unlikely then, that the Republicans will be able to secure control of the House at least until the November 2022 election.
The Election of 2022 and Beyond
Despite the growing division of the Republican party, they still stand a very good chance of gaining enough seats in the 2020 Congressional election to take control of the House. That’s largely because two years after most presidential elections, the party which lost the previous presidential election gained a substantial number of seats in both houses of Congress.
Two years after most presidential elections, the losing party gains a substantial number of seats in both houses of Congress. Since the Democrats currently hold just a few-set edge in the House, the Republicans would appear to have an excellent chance of regaining control of the House in the November 2022 election.
Trump would easily be elected to a seat and then be selected House Speaker. He would now be second in line for the presidency behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Back on January 6th, Trump’s legions of insurrectionists not only came within seconds of capturing Pence, Pelosi, and Grassley, but of possibly executing them as well. In fact, they could have even held the entire Congress hostage. And with Trump still in the White House, God knows what he might have done.
Will Trump Regain His Presidency?
Who knows what he and his fellow insurrectionists will be capable of doing? Try to imagine what Trump might be thinking if, as House Speaker, he were second in the presidential succession.
Since he and so many of his rabid followers remain convinced that the presidency had been stolen from him, wouldn’t it stand to reason that they would want to finish the job they just started on January 6th? Five people died that day. What would two more matter if that would restore the presidency to the person who rightly won the 2020 election?
At a minimum, the Secret Service, the FBI, the other U.S. government spy agencies, and even the military will need to be on full alert for the next three and a half years. Even without regaining the presidency, Donald Trump may still succeed in destroying our democracy.