Only the third time since 2000 has global trade growth dipped below 2%. On both prior occasions, the US economy was in recession.
Yost Partners was up 0.8% for the first quarter, while the Yost Focused Long Funds lost 5% net. The firm's benchmark, the MSCI World Index, declined by 5.2%. The funds' returns outperformed their benchmark due to their tilt toward value, high exposures to energy and financials and a bias toward quality. In his first-quarter letter Read More
There is a correlation between policy uncertainty and trade growth. Higher the policy uncertainty lower is the Trade growth. Guess what, 2017 started with highest ever policy uncertainty.
In 2010 there were 464 trade-restrictive measures on deck.
In 2016 there were 2238 trade trade-restrictive measures on deck.
World trade was already slowing before Trump became president http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/228941487594148537/pdf/112930-REVISED-PUBLIC.pdf. The new wave of policy uncertainty and trade protectionism does not bode well for Global trade.