Economic Surprises Are Turning Back Over In The US by Eric Bush, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US is at two-month low and squarely back in negative territory. The US has spent almost the entire year not meeting expectations.
Developed markets in general have tipped back into negative territory as well. This series has been in a much tighter range over the past year and half than is for majority of its history. Europe and Japan, however, are bright spots even as Japan has recently lost quite a bit of economic momentum.
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Emerging markets continue to underwhelm as well. EM economic surprises have fallen to nearly a one-year low. Both China and Latin America are clearly seeing economic releases come in below expectations.