The next two years may be the most consequential in our nation’s history. And you-know-who will very likely occupy center stage for most, if not all of the time.
We will somehow either manage to continue being a political democracy – or we won’t. It appears that while most Americans are very concerned about the continued survival of free elections and majority rule.
Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
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If Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025, he will very likely be able to finish the job he started when he and the future first lady came down that golden escalator in Trump Tower and he announced his presidential candidacy.
Will Donald Trump Run For President?
The question on the minds of most Americans – whether registered Democrats, Republicans or independents – is whether or not Trump will run for president one more time. As someone who has followed his political career very closely, I am convinced that he will indeed run again. The only question is when he will make his announcement.
It could conceivably come before the end of this year. That would put Trump’s potential Republican rivals – especially Florida governor Ron DeSantis and former vice president Mike Pence – at considerable disadvantage, since both – as well as several other Republican potential contenders – lag far behind Trump in all the polls.
On the other hand, Trump can delay his announcement even beyond next summer, while freezing all his potential rivals for the Republican presidential nomination with uncertainty about whether or not the former president will throw his MAGA cap into the ring.
Perhaps the most important factor influencing the timing of when Trump will formally announce his candidacy is the number of potential rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination who he may be facing. Ideally, from Trump’s competitive perspective – the more, the merrier.
Back in late 2015, when Trump faced close to twenty rivals, he eventually became the frontrunner by splitting the opposition, thereby preventing the rise of a formidable competitor. Had he had just a single rival, all the anyone-but-Trump voters would have coalesced around that individual. So surely, he will want to follow the same strategy in 2023.
Unquestionably, the Republican presidential nomination is Trump’s for the asking. If he announces his candidacy sooner rather than later, he will have a more persuasive argument that all these “Democrat” lawsuits are blatant “political witch-hunts.” That would be his rallying cry to his legions of avid followers.
As nearly every American knows, Trump is facing very serious federal and state legal charges, which will almost surely result in a multitude of criminal and civil indictments.
If convicted, not only will he face long prison sentences, but also the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars. What rational person in such legal peril would want to take on such an extremely time-consuming presidential campaign?
Perhaps only Donald Trump. He would employ the same strategy that has served him so well for the last four decades – keep stalling until he has run out the clock But this time, with a multitude of federal and state prosecutors and judges – all of whom are well acquainted with Trump’s delaying tactics – they may may no longer work.
Now, let’s shift gears and consider why he is set and determined to run for president one more time. Trump is not a complicated man. He has very simple tastes.
In fact, there are five activities that he truly enjoys: eating huge amounts of junk food. playing golf, receiving adulation from his political followers, stealing money in his business dealings and cheating on his taxes.
Running for president – and hopefully, getting elected – would ensure that Trump could keep living the good life. Let’s consider the advantages that he clearly perceives.
Just announcing his candidacy would force federal and state prosecutors to proceed much more cautiously so they would not be perceived as carrying out political vendettas against Trump and to be sabotaging his presidential campaign.
At least temporarily, Trump would suck up nearly all the attention of the media and of Republican voters. Even better, his campaign would utilize his announcement as a vehicle to vacuum up tens – or even hundreds -- of millions in campaign contributions.
He would now have a great excuse to continue holding his political rallies – an activity he apparently enjoys as much as golfing and eating junk food. During his entire presidency, he had continued holding those rallies. But if he were to decide not to run in 2024, he probably would never hold another rally.
I don’t think he could voluntarily give up this activity any more easily than giving up any of his other favorite activities. Indeed, not only was he the first American president to continue having rallies through his entire presidency, but even after he was voted out of office.
Donald Trump is a seventy-six-year-old obese man who never exercises, never even walks anywhere when he can ride, and gets nearly all his sustenance from McDonald’s, Burger King, and Kentucky Fried Chicken.
Trump's Moral Rap Sheet
Donald Trump has a moral rap sheet that might be the envy of the devil himself.
- He has almost single-handedly destroyed our democratic system of government.
- His largest companies have gone through four major bankruptcies.
- He has sexually assaulted numerous women – and then boasted about it.
- He is a pathological liar.
- He is a virulent racist.
- He is entangled with Russian president and dictator Vladimir Putin and some Russian oligarchs.
- He has systemically cheated hundreds of small building contractors.
But on the plus side, he is a relatively good multi-tasker. And so far, he has managed to avoid going to prison.
The question I am raising is whether Trump – or anyone in such great legal peril – is well advised to take on running for president – itself an all-consuming task –while simultaneously trying to defend himself in multiple lawsuits.
So, here’s my prediction. He will run again for president; he will go bankrupt once more – but with no one to bail him out; and he will end up going to prison.
