Donald Trump is one of the world’s least successful gamblers, having gone bankrupt four times. His first bankruptcy was actually in his own Atlantic City casino. Luckily for him, his daddy bailed him out.
Donald Trump Is Trying To Win Back The Presidency
And now, he’s once again placing all his chips on the table, this time gambling that he will win back the presidency. Or else, possibly ending up in prison.
If he does win, he will collect his get-out-of-jail-free card, and continue converting our democracy into a fascist dictatorship, while exacting revenge on those who had dared to oppose him. The only problem with the plan is that he cannot adequately defend himself in a growing number of very serious lawsuits, while simultaneously running a creditable campaign for the presidency.
Although he is the overwhelming favorite to get the Republican presidential nomination next year, he has almost no chance of beating President Joe Biden – or almost any other Democratic candidate in the general election. Just last Thursday, the very reliable Monmouth University poll reported that sixty-three percent of American voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, while just twenty-six percent view him favorably.
It is widely predicted that as Trump’s legal trials proceed, his favorability ratings among Republicans will rise somewhat; but among all voters, they will fall even further. Trump will then lose to Biden in a landslide.
Now, let’s turn to the Republican presidential primary to see how it’s shaping up so far. They’ll be holding their first televised debate on August 24th. Trump, who now holds a huge lead, is still undecided about whether or not to participate in this debate — or any of the remaining ones. He has said that there’s no point in doing so, because his rivals are so far behind.
Clearly, he has a point. What does he have to gain by debating these guys? But he has still other reasons for not debating.
The Presidential Debates
Presidential debates require a substantial degree of preparation. There are lines to be memorized, facts to be mastered, and personal attacks to be anticipated. Understandably, with all his legal problems, Trump has a lot more on his mind than even thinking about participating in what he considers an almost meaningless political ritual.
Another two reasons to stay away from the debates have to do with two of his rivals – Florida governor Ron DeSantis and his old political buddy, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. In Trump’s absence from the debate stage, DeSantis, his closest rival, may even become a surrogate whipping boy, thereby absorbing some of the heat that might otherwise have been directed at the former president.
Chris Christie, a 2016 Republican presidential candidate – is now running again. But his chances of winning the nomination are plainly forecast by the one percent he’s polling.
Is it possible that he has another motive for running? Back in 2016, during one of the televised debates, Christie made a complete fool of Florida Senator Marco Rubio by predicting virtually word-for-word what the poor guy was about to say. Whatever chances Rubio might have had went right down the drain.
Now Christie once again expects to play the role of spoiler. This time, he hopes to destroy Trump’s chances of winning the nomination. While Christie would love to be president, he is well aware that he has virtually no chance in this primary. But he will stay in the race as long as he can just to get under Trump’s skin and maybe even help deny him the Republican nomination.
At this point, we still don’t know if Trump will participate in any of the debates. But appearing in the debates is just a part of the process of running for president. Indeed, for Trump in particular, the hardest part would be the daily wear-and-tear of running in the general election against Biden.
OK, this burden is borne by anyone who competes for this office. But Trump stands to be the first major presidential candidate who will be under multiple criminal indictments — and possibly even as a convicted felon.
Aside from this exceedingly unattractive political portrait, Trump will hardly have much time to campaign. But now, look at the other side of the coin.
The more time he spent campaigning, the less time and energy he would have for defending himself in court.
A Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
Trump was basically a very lazy president, devoting the lion’s share of his workday to so-called “executive time” — AKA watching television. And the man certainly did enjoy an occasional game of golf.
Getting reelected president might indeed provide Trump with a get-out-of-jail-free card. But pursuing that card by running for president will make it much harder for Trump to defend himself in court. As a lifelong gambler who has gone bankrupt four times, Trump should have learned a thing or two. But apparently, he hasn’t.
Over the rest of this year, Trump’s indictments will continue piling up, and he’ll have less and less time to attend to his legal affairs, thereby vastly increasing his chances of being convicted of some serious crimes. Some of these convictions might well have been mitigated – if not completely avoided – had he not been running for president, but instead, working much harder on his legal defenses.
Between now and Election Day 2024, Trump’s legal strategy will be what has served him so well over the last four decades – delay, delay, delay. But what will happen when he loses again to Joe Biden next November? The betting here is that he would soon be fitted for an orange jumpsuit to match his complexion.
