5 & 10-Year Inflation Expectations are at Parity

5 & 10-Year Inflation Expectations are at Parity

US inflation expectations have declined significantly over the past six weeks. 30-year breakeven inflation is now just 1.59% after hitting a high of 1.86% on 4/29/16. 10-year breakeven inflation has moved from 1.71% to 1.47% and 5-year breakeven inflation has gone from 1.61% to 1.47%. In addition to the overall lowering of inflation expectations, 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation expectations are now equal for the first time since July 2008. This is in contrast to an average spread of 36 bps from 2008-2015. Lastly, the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate ( Ben Bernanke’s favorite inflation indicator when he was chairman of the Fed) has fallen to just 1.44%. It is just above the lows of 1.41% hit in February but otherwise its at the lowest level since 2009.

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Mohnish Pabrai On Value Investing, Missed Opportunities and Autobiographies

Mohnish PabraiIn August, Mohnish Pabrai took part in Brown University's Value Investing Speaker Series, answering a series of questions from students. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more One of the topics he covered was the issue of finding cheap equities, a process the value investor has plenty of experience with. Cheap Stocks In the Read More

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