Weekly Sentiment Poll – 9 Jan 2017

Updated on

Here’s a quick note looking at some charts created using data from the latest weekly equity sentiment poll I’ve been running. As a reminder, theWeekly Equity Sentiment PollusesTwitter pollingand distinguishes between whether respondents are bullish or bearish primarily on the back of fundamental vs technical analysis reasons.

The firstchartshows the trends in the responses for each of the options. The latest results show an extension of the recent trend towards more bearishness on fundamentals, yet bullishness on technicals improved (that whole, “I don’t like the fundamentals but price is going up” thing).

542496 41ae37558d6349f8ad329652c35c87ad~mv2

The overall bulls minus bears sentiment spread rebounded on the week (along with price). It has all the elements of a typical pullback in an uptrend, but it is interesting how from a quick glance it looks like the two series are diverging.

542496 5ba78800491249cdb63fa0cb14f4bf94~mv2

To me, probably the most interesting charts this week were the bull-bear sentiment spreads for fundamentals and technicals – they actually moved in opposite directions (more net-bearish on fundamentals and more net-bullish on technicals).  It also continues the trend of net-bearishness on fundamentals but net-bullishness on technicals.  What should also get your attention is the seeming tendency for the fundamentals spread to act as a leading indicator (while it’s only early days for the survey, the fundamentals spread seems to lead price action at times…).

542496 8b5b417d976d47c0aa1986f1e5f1c447~mv2

Finally, another interesting one is the overall bulls vs bears spread inverted and overlayed against theCBOE Volatility Indexor VIX. A quick glance at the chart would make you think that perhaps there’s upside in store for the VIX…

542496 f7ff2e4a30d648aa9098cb5f924060fd~mv2

Overall the fact that the total bullish minus bearish sentiment spread ticked up from its worst level since prior to the election would make me think we’ve seen a short-term bottom in the market.  But there is plenty of fodder for the bears in the latest results e.g. possible bearish divergence, tick down in fundamentals sentiment, and the VIX chart.

Leave a Comment