S&P 500 strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these played into the hawkish Fed expectations, further strengthening them as the short end of the curve reveals.
Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Find A Qualified Financial Advisor
Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes.
Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.
If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.
The selling pressure though stalled, and the modest rebound that could have rolled over in the 3,560s as I indicated was a good place for it to happen, didn‘t materialize. The sellers were swiftly overpowered, and an hour later I declared that attempt as failed, with buyers moving in quickly.
Two hours after that, I talked bullish bias into the closing bell, aftermarket and premarket. S&P 500 has made good progress since, reaching 70+ points higher after the original bullish call.
Could this be the start of the Q4 rally pinned to start on CPI figures the preceding Monday?
The technicals and seasonals would support that, the S&P 500 chart offered signs of bottoming – I had been talking about the conditions for a rally being in place, and that now it would be only about whether they get acted upon or not.
And in spite of the bond market performance yesterday, it appears to be the case. Or precisely because of the performance, because of the intraday dynamics – HYG sharply recovered the opening setback, mirroring that S&P 500 upswing. It‘s not an issue that Nasdaq lagged a little – the cyclicals did well, it‘s sectorally apparent that bullish spirits have come back yesterday.
I‘m indeed leaning towards this being the real Q4 rally start – still a bear market rally that would fail, but would be lasting enough to build confidence on par with the failed summer rally as I talked Monday.
Daily consolidation with decent bullish bias to be seen Friday as the still okay retail data hint at, would be a welcome sight as fresh longs would enter the market. Not even the strong upswing in the dollar today is an issue – look how fine cryptos are shaking it off, and precious metals would be next in line to do so.
Approaching A Sizable Rally In Silver
Silver is bidding its time, but we‘re slowly approaching a sizable rally in the white metal starting. Copper is doing very fine, the yesterday opened long position is in the black already, and has turned the corner too.
Crude oil is for now consolidating around the 50-day moving average, and the $92 resistance awaits – it will be easily overcome once the dollar pauses on a daily basis, but I agree that yesterday‘s WTIC upswing on low volume hints at that to happen probably not in the very opening part of next week.
The nice rounded bottom with a fake breakdown is over, and black gold is climbing higher now again, slowly but surely – with natgas still bullish as well.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox.
Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only.
Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves on top of my extra Twitter feed tips. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Thank you,
Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals
Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind.
Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor.
By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss.
Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
