S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity, and couldn‘t keep pressuring even only NDX. While banking is getting less in the headlines, it isn‘t turning up either. The same goes for yesterday‘s hesitant perfomance of smallcaps, industrials and materials – bonds aren‘t paving the way for a universally clear upswing either.
It‘s only the veracity of S&P 500 intraday reversal higher coupled with premarket consolidation taking price action just below the key 4,039 resistance that makes me assume the buyers would try to break above. The more though the banks cease to be the focus of the day, the more would prior safe havens (tech and Treasuries, not gold and real assets) get hurt by money outflows.
Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
For now, stocks remain trading in a larger range, and the higher they attempt to grind, the more warning signs would pop up before the true recession hallmarks.
Rising unemployment (initial, continuing claims), earnings downgrades and manufacturing – make as short a process with this dillydallying rally as the return of inflation (strengthened by rising oil again while nominal wage growth didn‘t recede much, and services inflation remains still hot) as the recognition of why the Fed would pivot at all (how about economic slowdown and pressure on banks through continued deposit outflows?).
Consumer confidence and retail sales would kick in too, but are for now shielded by the termporary housing recovery (based on limited supply and lower mortgage rates).
This is a perfect environment for – as in all roads lead to – gold and silver. Take silver confirmed by copper and base metals swinging higher, and 2023 will truly be the year of precious metals. One of many.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Crude Oil
The second trip to $66 turned out pretty lame, and the bears couldn‘t muster more strength. $71 – 73 would now act as support, and a series of higher highs and higher lows is upon us.
Copper
Very bullish copper price action and continued outperformance of the commodities index – the worst in this two month long correction, is over.
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