Crispin Odey ‘Re-Shorts’ AUD As He Calculates China GDP At 3%

Crispin Odey is still a big China bear and explains his views in a conference call to investors.

Crispin Odey’s Odey International Fund conference call and presentation for the second quarter ended June 30, 2015.

Also see Odey: Market crash threatens entire Chinese economy

Crispin Odey Conference Call Audio

Crispin Odey – Odey International Fund 2Q15 Performance

• During Q2-15 OEI returned -14.9% (€), OEI Mac returned -26.2% ($), Odey Swan returned -15.0% (€I); the long-only funds returned: (Opus £) -5.0%, (Odey Allegra International €) -1.5% and (Odey Pan European €R) -1.2%. The MSCI Daily TR Net Europe returned -3.2% (€), +0.4% ($) and the MSCI Daily TR Net World returned -5.3% (£) and -3.3% (€).
• The negative performance of OEI for Q2-15 was mainly driven by active currency exposure (-12.4%), a considerable portion of which came from the AUD/USD position.
• The short equity book also had a negative impact on performance (-1.6% after currency hedging). Positive contributions before currency hedging came from Sands China (+103bps), Elekta AB (86bps) and Swatch Group (+75bps). The largest negative contributions came from Lloyds Banking Group (-41bps), Coca-Cola HBC (-39bps) and Glencore (-33bps).
• After currency hedging the long equity book made a positive contribution for the quarter (+1.5%). Positive contributions before currency hedging came from a number of positions including DMG Mori Seiki (+66bps), Sports Direct International (+62bps) and Oxford Nanopore Technologies (+40bps). The largest negative contributions were attributable to the LM EricssonTelefon (-139bps), Man Group(-79bps) and Tungsten Corp(-63bps).
• Elsewhere, commodities and government bonds return +0.2% and-1.7% respectively.

Crispin Odey’s Views Today

Views

1. Slowing growth in China
2. Weakness and deflation spreading from China
3. Pressure on commodity producing economies
4. Rising Australian unemployment and falling wages
5. Eurozone economic weakness, high unemployment, falling credit, and dysfunctional politics
6. UK economic growth but weak foundations given double deficit
7. Japan offering attractive value and actual earnings growth
8. Recovering US economy, consumer saving his gasoline savings, and Fed likely to raise rates
9. Equity bull market approaching longest of the last century
10. FX volatility increasing with Yen devaluation a harbinger of more to come
11. QE is driving an equity bubble -has an effect on assets but not activity
12. Signs of a European recovery
13. Productivity still not coming through
14. Indications of wages rising in the US and UK
15. Oil rally will be self-defeating as WTI approaches $70

Positions

1. Long US$ and short weak EM currencies
2. Short Macau casinosShort mining and materials
3. Short EM fund managers
4. Short European peripheral banks
5. Long Japanese exporters & industrials
6. Long UK category killers
7. Long earnings growth and dividend yields
8. Long US and Japanese banks
9. Long telecom equipment and networks
10. Short oil majors

See full presentation below.