Just done my final performance numbers for 2017 – I recon the figure will come out at +c37%.
This isnt bad compared to FTSE AS Total return in GBP of 12%. Volatility has been minimal – maximum monthly drawdown was 3.8%.
Good ideas
ALF (alternative liquidity fund)- started year at 17c, ended at 25.25c – also paid out 2.5c – so an 80% return.
Symphony International Holdings – now exited, nice easy profit.
Tribal – which I somewhat regret selling….
Rasmala – which I hold some but tendered loads for another cheeky profit.
Made a ctouch on DUPD.
Punts on Fox minerals and DDDD pharma havent really come through yet – but both are up slightly…
On Tejoori I am including this at a value of 48.5c. If I assume I get 60c a share performance is 44% for the year. If they run off with my money giving me nothing I am up 9% in the year. I believe I have gone overboard here and am a bit overweight, in my defence I sold a few things to buy a house (only a cheap one) without scaling down TJI – this may turn out to be an expensive mistake. I have been reading about Kelly criterion betting – and the implications of that – using it to size some of my more ‘sure thing’ positions. Actually I went a fraction of Kelly. Still I think this was a mistake and I am going to be more diversified in future – regardless of outcome. If the money does / does not come through the result will be reflected in the 2018 performance figures.
I still hold Fondul Proprietea which is still quite attractive and continuing to do tender offers.
KMG, I think the offer is a bit low and might be raised but the FT disagrees. Of all my trades this is something of a perfect position – in September, likely to be out by end Jan, 30-40% profit. Pity about my sizing – tax tail is wagging the investment dog. I need to sort out better broking… Any recommendations for a broker that can cope with GDR’s and the like and does ISAs?
PIL (Produce Investments – potato farmer) hasn’t done anything – I might give this another year.
Mistakes / Bullets dodged
Dodged a bullet on Terra Catalyst fund – I held this prior to starting the blog but never wrote it up…. Wish I had posted as some readers might have avoided a loss….
Quite sizable loss on SGC -c35% and c5-10% loss on PVCS – still running.
Exited my position in Italian property funds / MKS – no real investment rationale – I needed cash to buy a buy to let…. I may re-enter – I never got round to posting about these – there is lots on the net anyway….
This might stike you as illogical as my buy to let yields c10% whereas I return 20-30% most years investing. Still I want income, I dont want to be living off capital – something of a false distinction. I still have a (very) part time job and I would like to stop – possibly replaing it with BTL income. I made 5x what I make working from investing but can’t quite bring myself to finally quit work a couple more of these should do it…
Crypto
I was obviously lucky to get on board with KR1 and Crypto just before a move up. I have sold out a bit and will continue to do so. Some people (myself included) wouldnt consider crypto proper investment – there is no fundamental basis. Ex crypto I am up 25%. I intend to slowly sell down crypto but also have something of a methodology to switch – and hopefully ride it a bit more. I need to be so careful on this – there is much crazyness about. Having said that, all crypto is only worth slightly more than Google or about the GDP of Taiwan – not huge in the overall scheme of things – but much bigger than it was…
Goldmines avoided
Still there have been lots of mistakes – an aborted position on NCC nearly netted me a 100% gain and I nearly 4 bagged on Tech financials, I was very close to buying in…. With increased funds I am finding it difficult to put positions on and hold them through adversity. Next year I will likely have more smaller positions. Hopefully I will then have more confidence to add, instead of larger positions where I am overly nervous. This is the exact opposite of what I said last year – where I wanted more, larger positions….
Current positioning
If TJI pays out and KMG is realised I will be over 43% cash – too much, but I would rather sit in cash than compromise quality. I also use leverage but haven’t this year.
Looking forward to next year I am expecting a very tough time. I expect to find good opportunities even more difficult to find, mid/ late bull markets are not when I expect to thrive, nor when I want to be taking much risk. With rising rates we might get a dip to exploit. I am also a bit concerned about Crypto, 8% is quite a lot for something I have my doubts about, still it has paid off so far and I should run winners.
I dont expect to post as much next year as I did last year – I finally signed up for CFA level 2 – after a 10 year hiatus so this will take quite a bit of time. Its somewhat frustrating that after years of consistent 20-30%+ performance I only make a good living out of this rather than a fortune. This is mostly driven by the small level of my initial capital… A few years of a ‘proper’ job would help. Still a few more years of 30%+ profits compounding and I will get there.
Next year’s target is to make 30%+ again. I will also diversify more, whilst maintaining quality.
As ever, comments are appreciated.
