The Joint Musk-SEC Letter Is Due With Judge Nathan’s Office Soon

Updated on

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Elon Musk-SEC joint letter which is due with Judge Nathan’s office today.

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The fact that the two parties are waiting to the last hours to file it, increases the probability that they have no deal.

They have had two weeks to work out a deal.  The SEC has all the cards here.  If Musk doesn't yield to the SEC's demands, the SEC feels confident that it will win in the form of the Judge Nathan's eventual ruling.

The SEC, wanting to seem reasonable, will wait to the last hour to show that they are patient and reasonable with Musk.

If Musk wants to negotiate, would he start on the very last day?  That would seem like a hail-Mary.

The one other possibility is that the parties ask the Judge for an extension, which likely would be granted, perhaps for a week.

If there is an agreement, then it depends on what that agreement says -- but that likely avoids a worst-case near-term scenario for Musk, so it could be (slightly) positive for the stock.

But if there is no agreement, I have to believe Tesla stock has greater downside at this point.

The market is opened and nothing is on file with Judge Nathan yet:

The SEC probably wouldn't file during market hours.  So, tonight.

This 4/20 weekend will certainly be an interesting one.

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