DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund webcast slides for the month of March 2018 titled, “Inflation Is Inflationary.”
Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.
TAB I – U.S. Recession?
LEI (YoY) Heading into Recessions
Since January 1960
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of January 31, 2018
LEI = Leading Economic Indicators is a measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. YoY = year‐over‐year. You cannot invest directly in an index.
ISM PMI Leading Up to Recessions
December 31, 1947 to February 28, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of January 31, 2018
ISM = Institute of Supply Management. Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector and is based on: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. YoY = year‐over year. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Measures of Business and Consumer Sentiment
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of February 28, 2018
Z‐score indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. Standard deviation measures the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. You cannot invest directly in an index.
U.S. High Yield Spread Heading into Recession
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine as of March 5, 2018
US HY = Moody’s Bond Indices Corporate BAA Index are an average of the daily values for the corresponding month and weekly values are averages for the daily yields of the corresponding week. Spread = the difference between the yields of two bonds with differing credit ratings. You cannot invest directly in an index.
TAB II – The Fed & the Deficit
U.S. Budget Deficit % of GDP
Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine
GDP = Gross domestic Product measures the amount of goods and services produced within a given country. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Projected Annual Budget Deficits
Source: Societe Generale
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet
Source: JPMorgan as of December 31, 2017
BOJ = Bank of japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE = Bank of England
S&P 500 Debt Schedule
Source: JPMorgan As of February 21, 2018
S&P 500 Index is the American stocks market index based on market capitalizations of 500 largest companies having common stocks listed on NYSE and NASDAQ. You cannot invest directly in an index.
See the full PDF below.
