Jamie Dinan Likes TWC As Merger Arb Idea; TAP As Event Driven Idea

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Jamie Dinan founded York Capital Management in September 1991 and is the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and a Managing Partner of the Firm. From 1985 to 1991, he worked at Kellner, DiLeo & Co., where he became a General Partner and was responsible for investing in risk arbitrage and special situation investments. From 1981 to 1983, Jamie was a member of the investment banking group at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Inc. Jamie Dinan spoke today at the Capitalize For Kids Conference in Toronto and presented his favorite idea. Below are some (very) informal notes from Dinan who talks about merger arbitrage worth looking.

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Also see: Jeff Smith Bullish On Yahoo, Darden, MeadWestvaco, Guy Gottfried Pitches Long Tree Island Steel At Capitalize For Kids and Lee Ainslie Pitches Long Qihoo 360 At Capitalize For Kids


Jamie Dinan of York Capital Management


US growth is still quite healthy, Europe – Not so

Oil prices coming down will give a huge amount of money to the US consumer (essentially a $130B tax break for consumers)


Europe will be a reactionary market to policies

A lot of distressed situations in Europe


Merger Arbitrage worth looking at which seem to have a high probablity of succeeding

Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE:TWC)/Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA)

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB)/Rockwood Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ROC)


Downside on TWC if deal with CMCSA falls through, is roughly $137.66 per share based on the announced CHTR proposal (higher than the current price)

90% probability that the deal gets done

Jamie Dinan on Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE:TAP)

they think an event could happen

TAP has a 42% stake in MillersCoors

York believes BUD will pursue an acquisition of SAB

The combined entity would likely to be forced to divest 58% interest in the MillerCoors JV

They believe the deal will get done at $10b, all debt

bringing TAP’s leverage to 5x EBITDA

$300m in synergies estimated from integrating MillerCoors with TAP’s canadian business

reminds him of the STZ/BUD  event when BUD was forced to divest the US JV of Groupo Model

Avenue Capital

Marc Lasry is the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of Avenue Capital Group, a global alternative investment manager with approximately $12.6 billion in assets under management, and specializing in distressed debt investing. Avenue, founded in 1995 and headquartered in New York City, has offices in London, Luxembourg, Munich, and four offices throughout Asia. Avenue likes Avaya Paper, YRC Equity

Shawn Foley

Avenue Capital US Strategy

$14B AUM

Distressed Debt investors


US leveraged finance focus



first lien paper

and second lien paper

Avenue Capital on YRC Worldwide Inc (NASDAQ:YRCW)

equity idea

Avenue Capital on  Meritor Inc (NYSE:MTOR)

Debt and equity look interesting

new ceo Ike Evans, solid background at UNP and emerson electric

reducing debt to below 1.5b


Martin Frass Ehrfeld

TCI Real Estate Partners


Going to discuss real estate lending


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