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Hedge Fund 63 Pg Presentation: Shorting Portuguese Debt

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Tortus Capital Master Fund, LP (hedge fund) is short certain Portuguese Debt.

Check out their public 63 page presentation on why they are shorting the Portuguese Debt.

Portuguese Debt: The Status Quo Is Not Sustainable

The Troika Program Is Off Track. The Status Quo Is Leading to Higher Leverage. Portuguese Bondholders Are Now at the Mercy of the Market

Portugal Has Excessive Public and Private Sector Debt Financed from Abroad. Portugal Can Neither Outgrow Nor Devalue it

Austerity Fatigue Has Set In as the People Carry the Full Burden of the Adjustment. Politics and the Constitutional Court Attest to this

Corporates Are Defaulting En Masse and Cannot Sustain their Debt Burdens, Leading to a Vicious Cycle of Deleveraging

The Long-Term Growth Outlook Is Bleak

Portugal’s Sovereign Debt Is Not Sustainable

Debt/GDP Is Very High, Even Unadjusted and Growing 1%pt per Month. Portugal Appears to Be the Third Most Levered Country in the Euro Area

Accounting For Growth And Interest Expense, the Debt Burden Is the Highest In The Euro Area and Is Not Sustainable

The State Can Neither Raise Taxes, Nor Cut Expenditures, Leaving Little Room to Improve Debt Servicing Capacity

40 Consecutive Years Of Deficit and 18 Years Without A Primary Surplus Confirms that Portugal Cannot Sustain So Much Debt

In The Most Optimistic Case, the Portuguese Sovereign Has 30% Too Much Debt

Portugal Already Benefits from Extraordinary Levels of Solidarity

Common Misconceptions

Myth Reality Portugese Debt

Review of Alternatives – PSI Is the Best Rehabilitation Option

Review of Alternatives

Portugal Has Dramatically Missed Its Deficit Target

• The IMF and the European Commission expected the government deficit to reach 3% of GDP in 2013

• The 2013 deficit is now likely to be 5.9% of GDP or 5.5% excluding bank recap

Portugese Debt

Portugal Has Dramatically Missed Its GDP Growth Target

• At the beginning of the program, the IMF and the European Commission estimated that nominal GDP would be €174 billion in 2013 or over 5% higher than where it actually will be

Full PDF See here rehabilitating portugal

Rehabilitating Portugal by ValueWalk.com

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