Bubble And Crash Cycles – A Tale of Two Crashes – Part II – Part II by Jeff Nielson, Sprott Money
In the first part of this series, readers were presented with two separate but related expositions. First, readers were reminded of what is now a pattern of crime: the eight-year bubble and crash cycles manufactured by the Big Bank crime syndicate in the West.
The previous eight-year cycle ended with the Crash of ’08, making us merely weeks or months away from the Crash of ’16 . While some elements of this cycle are the same, such as another mammoth bubble in U.S. equity markets , several elements of the pattern are markedly different, for reasons which will be explained in this concluding installment.
Gates Capital Management's ECF Value Funds have a fantastic track record. The funds (full-name Excess Cash Flow Value Funds), which invest in an event-driven equity and credit strategy, have produced a 12.6% annualised return over the past 26 years. The funds added 7.7% overall in the second half of 2022, outperforming the 3.4% return for Read More
One of the facets of this cycle which differs from the previous one is with respect to commodity markets. It is thus necessary to review the fundamentals for these markets, and explain how prices are supposed to be a function of demand and monetary variables—specifically the rate of currency creation (and thus “inflation”) manufactured by the world’s central banks.
Corporate media hides this reality, pretending that prices are purely a function of demand. This charade extends to the absurd pretense that central bankers can create their funny-money in ever-increasing quantities, while (supposedly) having no impact on prices—in commodity markets or elsewhere. This silliness was explained through an analogy in a recent commentary :
When you devalue a currency, you create inflation. It is the flip side of the same coin. Yet we have the corrupt regimes, particularly in the West, pretending there is virtually no ‘inflation’ in their economies, while they ‘competitively devalue’ their currencies. In other words, we have the utterly absurd scenario where Western governments are openly trying to destroy the value of their currencies as fast as they can via excessive money-printing, but claiming they are ‘unable’ to so – i.e. create inflation.
It is like going to a lemonade stand, and complaining that the lemonade is too strong. The 10-year-old proprietor replies that there is nothing he can do, because no matter how much water he adds, he can’t dilute the lemonade.
This is the Western monetary farce. We have criminal central banks creating paper funny-money at an unprecedented rate, which is backed by nothing, and then pretending that no matter how much they create, these ( worthless) currencies cannot be diluted in value. As is generally the case in our Wonderland Matrix of crime and corruption, the truth is virtually the opposite, in every respect.
The “inflation” created by all of this excessive money-printing is already baked into the economic cake. That is the correct, economic definition of the term inflation: to inflate the supply of money. There is no way to prevent the relentless destruction in the value of these currencies via “inflation,” unless or until we return to a proper gold standard. This is a principle which has been articulated by the highest monetary authority of the central bankers themselves:
In the absence of a gold standard, there is no way to prevent confiscation of savings through inflation. – Sir Alan Greenspan ( 1966)
This banking crime syndicate has been expending all of its time and energy not trying to “create inflation,” but rather trying to hide the hyperinflation already created. We are now doomed to the fate created by their monetary recklessness. This has also been covered previously, in a two-part series expressly titled How to Hide a Hyperinflation .
Part I of this series began to address a seeming paradox. As explained and defined in that initial installment: by economic definition, the Federal Reserve has already hyperinflated the U.S. dollar – past tense. Yet the consequence of that hyperinflation of the money supply (spiraling prices/a plunge to worthlessness of the U.S. dollar) has yet to materialize.
It was explained that one part of this paradox is the historic lag in time which has been observed, between when a currency becomes fundamentally worthless from a monetary standpoint, and the time the currency sees its actual exchange rate plunge to zero. This is the “confidence gap”: the length of time in which the Chumps can continue to be deluded into using this worthless currency, and continue to assign it value.
The other half of this equation can be explained through various forms of fraud, deceit, and market manipulation…
This is where we are today, in that “confidence gap.” The bankers have already destroyed the value of our currencies. Now they seek to hide this reality from us, with every form of deceit and brute-force manipulation they are capable of perpetrating.
Now we get to the crux as to why the 2009-2016 bubble and crash cycle has been orchestrated in a manner markedly different from the 2001-2008 cycle. Prior to 2009, our currencies had not yet been debauched to complete worthlessness , and we were not (already) in the Confidence Gap of delusion. Thus the spike which took place in our commodity markets up to 2008 was not quite the same hyperinflationary warning siren that it would have been had a similar spiral in prices occurred.
Part I exposed some of these efforts (crimes) by the banksters, as they engineered a brute-force reversal in the prices of commodity markets in 2011, even as they were in the final process of hyper-inflating our currencies to worthlessness. Campaigns of economic terrorism against India, Russia, and now China have seriously weakened those large economies, and this has caused a significant deterioration in commodity consumption (and demand) in those key markets.
It was further articulated that this campaign of economic terrorism is effectively global, impacting virtually all nations outside of the corrupt West, to greater or lesser degrees. The primary weapon in this economic terrorism is currency manipulation , a crime which the Big Banks have been convicted of serially perpetrating, going back to at least 2008.
However, this is by no means the One Bank’s only major tool of economic terrorism and financial crime. Through massive, multi-trillion dollar frauds in the “derivatives market,” and computerized market-rigging via corrupted trading algorithms , the Big Bank crime syndicate has near omnipotence in terms of manipulating markets (and destroying economies).
The reversal in commodity prices in the 2009-2016 cycle which began in 2011 was partially accomplished through relentlessly eroding demand (via economic sabotage of other nations), and partially accomplished via the direct manipulation of those markets. Indeed, regular readers are very familiar with the One Bank’s multi-decade saga of manipulating precious metals prices.
At this point, most readers may not fully appreciate the significance of this variation in successive bubble and crash cycles. This is because the public has been relentlessly mentally conditioned away from examining the consequences of such actions—whether by ourselves or others. Let us review this scenario.
The One Bank is presently in an all-out campaign to hide the hyperinflation of our currencies—i.e. the complete destruction of their value. We have already been assured (fifty years ago) by the West’s highest monetary authority, Sir Alan Greenspan, that nothing can prevent the “inflation” which the bankers have already created from being unleashed upon us. Thus they are merely seeking to delay the inevitable.
We are in an economic eye of the hurricane of which is very difficult to conceive, because we lack the cultural memory of such an economic devastation. The crimes and actions of the banksters suggest that what is approaching us now is not merely the Next Crash, it is the Last Crash.
The Confidence Gap between when the banksters fundamentally destroyed the value of our currencies and when we arrive at this realization is ticking away—and rapidly. Further reinforcing that we are headed for the Last Crash are the insane levels of indebtedness which exist not only across the West, but now in most economies around the globe. Many are bankrupt. Debt Jubilee beckons. The Last Crash .
This is why it is instructive to analyze patterns. This is why it is especially revealing to focus on deviations in patterns. In doing so, we can often unearth invaluable clues or warnings, and then act on our findings ahead of the herd.
Our paper currencies are worthless. They are about to (officially) plunge to zero in exchange rates, as do all fiat paper currencies, sooner or later. We still have time to act on an individual basis during this Confidence Gap, to minimize the harm from this imminent economic devastation.
Our lifeboat, as it has been for thousands of years, is precious metals . Paper currencies always fall to zero, and our paper currencies are about to go to zero. After that has happened, we will still have our gold and silver—and the wealth preserved within these eternal metals.
Bubble And Crash Cycles – World Bank Commodity Price Data