Interview with Hayman Capital Founder, Kyle Bass. Bass says 1$ trillion infrastructure stimulus is needed or US will hit a recession.
Kyle Bass, Says $1 Trillion Infrastructure Stimulus Is Needed
Kyle Bass: It's Almost Inevitable That We Have A Recession In 2020
Texan hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder of Hayman Capital, sees a recession happening in 2020 unless the U.S. puts together a big infrastructure plan.
When you think about trade you think about what's going on between the U.S. and China. You know it shouldn't matter as much as it's mattering in the press. Meaning if even if we were to just take our tariffs to 25 percent on the phone call it 520 billion we're talking about 125 billion dollars between one economy of 13 trillion and one economy of 20 trillion. It doesn't matter that much. I think us trying to reset our relationship with China.
Trade is yet one part of this discussion and it's a minor one when you compare it to two to five hundred billion dollars worth of IP stolen from us every year by the Chinese. So I think the global reset of our relationship has some people on edge and I think that outrage just one small part of it.
I do want to dig in on China with you. I know a few years ago you came with that big bearish bet on China particularly its financial system. What is the latest on that.
You know look we we tend to believe that when you build a financial system when you grow it a thousand percent in 10 years and you only grow your GDP 500 percent. You've built a reckless pile of credit that is now beginning to show itself and then as China's fiscal impulse contracted 5 percent in the last two years. That's what's driving China's decline. It's their attempt at a soft landing. It literally has nothing to do with Trump and tariffs Trump and tariffs are just maybe putting a little bit of icing on the cake. But but when you look at their fiscal impulse contracting and the ultimate arbiter of China's printing call at thirty five trillion dollars worth of their own currency in the last 15 years it will be the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar and that that's what we spent a lot of time focusing on. I think coming back to the U.S. here we just keep hearing about a possible recession.
On the horizon. What do you think about that. Do you see that in 2019 do you see it in 2020 what would be the catalyst.
You know I think when you when you think about the net effect of the tax plan we think about it in the net rate of change of stimulus so in 20 18 net stimulative effect of the tax cuts were roughly 250 billion dollars in stimulus to theU.S. next year it will be roughly 400 billion and then in 2020 will be 150 billion. So if you think about the rate of change from this year to next it will be plus 150 from 2019 to 2020 will be minus 250. And so my opinion is unless Trump gets a trillion dollar infrastructure plan put into place sometime early next year that it's almost inevitable that we have a recession in 2020.
Kyle is on the here. Do you think the Fed is making a mistake and what do you make of the current path of Fed policy at least as they've outlined it and of course what you make of what we've heard from Jay Powell in the last few weeks.
You know I think I think the Fed is doing a darn good job of trying to thread this needle. You know there are two things that they're trying to do. Number one they're trying to get rates up to a level so that they can meaningfully cut them if and when there's the next recession. Typically when theU.S. enters recessions we cut interest rates five to 600 basis points. Well you know when when rates are two and a half you can't cut them 500 basis points. And so I think the Fed's concerned about two things stimulating and full employment growing the fiscal deficit at full employment because when you do those things you always get inflation. And on the other side of things I think they're trying to normalize rates so that they can have as few arrows in the quiver for when for if and when we stumble and again again if we don't if we don't add stimulus between 2019.