By Long Short Trader I’ve been bullish twitter for the last 2 years (as others can attest to; go ahead and verify) and am happy to see that it has gone public under favourable market conditions. I find it interesting that 68% of investors believe twitter’s stock price will close lower than $44.90/share within the next 6 months:
Twitter will decline over next six months, according to Bloomberg poll of investors | http://t.co/HGZf1W1WDa pic.twitter.com/HcoEgBbrF8
— Bloomberg News (@BloombergNews) November 22, 2013
Hedge Fund Launches Jump Despite Equity Market DeclinesLast year was a bumper year for hedge fund launches. According to a Hedge Fund Research report released towards the end of March, 614 new funds hit the market in 2021. That was the highest number of launches since 2017, when a record 735 new hedge funds were rolled out to investors. What’s interesting about Read More
Yes, twitter’s valuation is absurd. Yes, the business is (currently) ponzi-financed. Yet investors’ pessimism is real. And rarely is such lop-sided sentiment perfectly correct. Such sentiment is not indicative of euphoria.
Now, the valuation is most definitely reflective of exuberant public and private capital markets. But shorting on valuation alone is as wise as buying on valuation alone. For example, if you short a zero revenue business at $x, it can go to $nx (where n >= 2) before it goes to zero (or not)…
This post is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of the shares of twitter, but to highlight the lop-sided sentiment against twitter shares.
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