Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) May Up Its Market Share With Roadster 3.0

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Tesla Motors announced plans to upgrade the Roadster, its very first car, last week. Analysts from multiple firms have been weighing in on the news. One of the latest firms to issue a reaction is Trefis, which suggests that the Roadster 3.0 could have a positive impact on Tesla’s share of the auto market.

Tesla Motors remains superior

In a report dated Dec. 29, 2014, Trefis analysts said the re-launch of the Roadster “reaffirms the superiority of Tesla Motors” to other EV makers. They say Tesla is the only one producing “significantly large volumes” of EVs in the high end, high range category. In comparison, they add that all other EV makers are “still experimenting” with smaller volumes of low end, low range EVs that are priced to compete with the Honda Accord, Toyota Camry and Nissan Altima.

They also say that other EV makers aren’t expecting to product 400-mile range EVs for a few more years, assuming they are able to implement “next generation battery chemistry,” which doesn’t exist yet. Tesla, on the other hand, is already planning to produce the 400-mile Roadster 3.0.

Tesla’s Roadster won’t cannibalize Model S

Although Tesla prices the Roadster at around $110,000, putting it in the same price range as the Model S, the Trefis team doesn’t expect the Roadster to eat into Model S sales. They sale the look and feel of the Roadster is different than those of the Model S, so it will appeal to a different consumer segment. The analysts add that this should enable Tesla to increase its sales after the Roadster becomes available to purchase.

The automaker currently expects to sell approximately 33,000 Model S sedans this year and 50,000 vehicles next year as the Model X will launch. By 2020, Tesla expects to be selling half a million units thanks to the launch of the Model 3 in 2017 and the Roadster 3.0.

Tesla worth only $165 per share

Although the Trefis team clearly likes Tesla Motors, they think the valuation is too high, based on their sum of the parts analysis. They value the company at $165 per share or at a $20.5 billion market capitalization.

They estimate that the Model S makes up 53.3% of their valuation, while the Model X makes up 19% and the Generation III car makes up 15.7%. The remaining percentages are split among electric powertrain sales, development services, the Roadster and cash net of debt.

Shares of Tesla Motors edged downward less than 1% during regular trading hours today.

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