The latest commentary on the grains and oilseeds markets from John Payne, Senior Futures and Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading in Chicago.
Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
"Reports out of eastern Europe have the Russian Navy firing a warning shot at a UK cruiser in the black sea this am. Markets are not moving much on the news. The last thing the global wheat and barley trade need is something keeping black sea wheat from being distributed. I have documented the lack of production coming out of Canada/USA this year. Russia is going to have to pick up the slack and increase exports to make up for what will be lost in the matrix. Russian export intentions will be monitored closely.
China-Australia Relations
China was back in the Australian wheat market for the first time since the pandemic started. To call China-Aussie relations sour would be an understatement. The Chinese have put up tariffs on Aussie wine and barley as leadership in Canberra was first to blame China for starting the pandemic . The fact they are buying from them tells me they are concerned about what's going on in Canada and the U.S. High protein wheat was reportedly purchased for a price near 300 per MT.
Rains In Iowa
Iowa saw 'million dollar rains' last night as mother nature dropped about .5 inches across the parched areas of central and western Iowa. Minnesota and the Dakotas missed out. Minny and SD/ND equal nearly 20% of U.S. production. The idea of trend yields in those states are nearly gone. Iowa and Illinois will need to out perform to get the country to trend."
