Vitaliy Kin, senior analyst at EXANTE, says that UK could suffer worse than Italy and Spain as Johnson’s slow slow prevention tactics which treat COVID-19 as a simple infectious disease could backfire!
Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has faced his biggest challenge since Brexit, and having come into office first as Foreign Ministry, and now Prime Minister, he’s being labelled as the worst politician as a result of his policy on tackling Coronavirus.
Amid the turmoil in the public markets and the staggering macroeconomic environment, it should come as no surprise that the private markets are also struggling. In fact, there are some important links between private equity and the current economic environment. A closer look at PE reveals that the industry often serves as a leading indicator Read More
Boris Johnson's Anti-virus Action
His anti-virus action has been quite slow and indecisive, mainly because of two common factors. He does not want to follow the USA, but nor does he want to follow the European Union. However, he has not been able to come up with any better plans, only turn the table and make it worse.
Whilst other countries are prohibiting gatherings of more than 10, 500, or 1000 people, Mr Johnson has only advised against “gatherings” without mention of numbers. Scotland has already taken action into its own hands though and banned gatherings of over 100.
Thus Mr Johnson has left people to deal with this on their own and given little strong guidance. When people heard that they should “be prepared to lose their beloved ones”, they cried.
Even if 5 million people left Wuhan city before the shutdown on 23rd January, everyone knew it would spread to the whole world sooner or later. So the leadership of each political leader was crucial in stopping or slowing down the spread.
Infectious Diseases And Herd Immunity
Mr Johnson accepted the theory of Herd Immunity. That is when 70 per cent of people got the same infectious disease and their body generates immunity and therefore it does not spread more. This aroused strong opposition. It basically meant the government does not need to do anything and let people continue to die until 70 per cent got the same disease. The fact is that the medical system will completely collapse before this even happens.
Over 200,000 people signed a plea for government to take more action and asked Parliament to debate it. Meanwhile, 296 local scholars and 33 international specialists issued a public letter stating that this theory is only applicable to light infectious disease and not something serious like Coronavirus. Mr Johnson therefore just adjusted the plan slightly. He suggested that those with fever should home isolate for 7 days and should not go to hospital. Then after 7 days they can evaluate and if not better, they can seek treatment. Therefore Britons now have to fight continuously for their plea until they reach their goal or else call for a Vote of No Confidence.
Using Immunology as a tactic or doing nothing to fight against the virus could mean we see it develop far worse than in Italy or Spain.
WHO Praises China
WHO Cares? And WHO had not commented on the most effective method. However, it’s clear that prevention is better than a cure. WHO has not dared to praise the successful prevention methods implemented in Taiwan and Hong Kong, but has praised China, where the infection rates have fallen and financial markets will rebound greatly without the needs for government interference.
The upward wave of gold started on 10th Dec of the Sino-US Trade agreement, general election of UK, and Impeachment of Trump, and we have now returned to that level. Stock will continue to plummet until US use high technology with Google to test everyone in 15 minutes and a robot to send materials to patients.