John Rogers, Ariel Investments chairman & CEO, thinks the unrest in Ukraine will not have any long-term impact on the U.S. economy. He shares his top stock picks, including Lazard Ltd (NYSE:LAZ).
John Rogers still bullish on US despite Ukraine crisis
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John Rogers On His Top Picks Transcript
i think this is just a temporary blip. i don’t think that the problems overseas, the things that are going on now in the ukraine with russia will have any long-term impact on the american economy. we’re still very, very bullish. buffett made a comment this morning on cnbc tobeck ki about a stock that he liked over in london that he was happy about the pullback as a value guy, which i know you are. you would look at these opportunities and any of the names you like as an opportunity to buy more, correct? exactly. we always think it’s great when you can get these kind of declines that you think are not long-term problems. you can take advantage of the bargains and the dislocations to buy good companies. you’ve got some bargains relative to their performance year-to-date that you like on the list. number one is Lazard Ltd (NYSE:LAZ), done well over the year, but can you make the case? they’re the preeminent worldwide brand when it comes to banking, boutique bank and we’re convinced you’re going to see a lot more transactions both private and strategic. and lazard is positioned well to benefit from that. they also have their money management business and mutual fund business doing extraordinarily well and has great exposure to the emerging markets part of the economy. and where people are spending more and more money with emerging markets money managers. hey, john, it’s joe. pleasure to have you. thanks for coming on today. the beginning of the year conversation largely centered around the direction of the ten-year yield in the u.s. here and seems as though that conversation now has diminished. is that incorrect? is it something that we should be looking for? are you expecting the yields to get back above 30%? i do. i think it’s inevitable interest rates are going to be higher a year, two and three from now. look forward. so i’m really convinced that you want to stay away from fixed income and especially the bond market today because we think equities are going to be the best place to be. john, jm smucker hasn’t faired well, names we know from folgers to jif to pilsbury — it’s substantially this year. we think now the — compelling. it’s extraordinarily well-managed by the smucker brothers. they’ve been big in jellies and jams and we’re really convinced that it will be a great long-term play for us. john, it’s josh brown. so you have bali technologies on your list which i thought looked the most interesting. this is a stock that had a massive rally. but over the last nine months it’s down 20%. that strikes me as odd given the fact that almost all of the 50 states are now allowing gambling and casino proliferation is one of the biggest megatrends you could possibly invest in. why isn’t this name better? and is that the opportunity for investors now? i think because it had such a massive rally early last year, had some great brands out there, the michael jackson brand was doing very, very well and betty boop and grl fun names. but having slot machines around these iconic brands they were doing really well. and i think it got a bit ahead of itself. now you have a chance to get it as we think a reasonable price closer to 14 times nx year’s earnings. and long-term as warren talked about these pension funds are really causing a lot of problem for major states and cities and counties throughout the country. and one of the ways to fix it is to raise taxes or operate more casinos that can be able to generate revenue for the state culprits that way.