On November 5, 2024, the American people will elect the president we deserve. And that definitely includes Former President Donald Trump.
This will probably be the most consequential election in our nation’s history. Indeed, it may even be our last.
Although he may not call himself a fascist, Trump has openly boasted about seizing complete control of the executive branch, and perhaps eventually encroaching on the legislative and judicial branches as well.
Are these just the ravings of a madman, or possibly the blueprint of a future dictator? Trump has tens of millions of ardent followers who will vote for him even if he is found guilty of several very serious crimes. But will he win in 2024?
Presidential Beauty Contests
First, we’ll hold two sets of presidential beauty contests. How many voters will love each of the leading Republican and Democratic candidates? It would be a very safe assumption that far more Americans will show their love for Trump than for President Joe Biden or any of the other Republican candidates.
Trump will almost certainly run away with the Republican presidential nomination, even if he’s sitting in a jail cell. That’s because close to half of the registered Republicans either love Trump, or at least like him.
But will all that love be enough for to win an election against President Biden – or any other Democrat who might run against him? I think we can pretty safely assume that Biden and Trump will have a rematch in 2024. But will the outcome be the same?
Despite his mounting legal troubles, Trump remains the inevitable choice of Republican Primary voters. Indeed, as his indictments mount, so will his political support.
Trump has never stopped claiming – without offering a shred of evidence – that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him. And he will undoubtedly make the same claim if he were to lose again in 2024.
Who can conceivably believe this hallucinatory lie? Well for starters, most of the tens of millions of his worshiping MAGA followers – the rock-solid base of the Republican Party.
But to win the election, Trump will need to attract tens of millions of additional Republicans, Independents, and rightwing Democrats. Nearly all of these folks voted for Trump in 2020, and might otherwise have been very likely Trump supporters in 2024.
But since the last election, Trump has not only led a bloody insurrection, stolen hundreds of classified federal government documents, and attempted to overturn the election results, but he is being indicted for these and other very serious crimes. While his MAGA followers support Trump unconditionally, tens of millions of other voters — most notably moderate Republicans and Independents — are becoming increasingly repulsed by his behavior.
Each new indictment and conviction will cut into his support among large segments of the Republican electorate. Perhaps a majority of well-educated suburban women will flock to Biden – not to mention country club Republicans, corporate leaders, law-and-order Republicans, and supporters of a strong national defense.
Mounting Legal Troubles
As Trump’s legal troubles continue to mount, he will be forced to cut back on his political campaigning. While these events may further solidify the support of his base, he will lose much more support from the rest of the electorate.
Increasingly, over the last couple of months, Trump has become his own worst enemy. Not only has he been hurling disparaging remarks at the prosecutors who have secured indictments against him, but he has even been urging his supporters to consider physically assaulting them and even their families.
What kind of person does this? Maybe a mob boss. And Trump happens to hold sway over, by far, the largest mob in our nation’s history.
While this might not be too upsetting to his legions of faithful followers, most Americans find this behavior completely unacceptable. Surely each of these outbursts will cost him a huge number of votes.
By the time the general election-campaign begins around Labor Day in 2024, Trump will have succeeded in alienating a very large number of swing voters – many of them his own former supporters. Even before the fall campaign gets into full swing, Biden will be far ahead in the polls. And on Election night, when Biden wins in a landslide, Trump will be screaming that the election was stolen.
Well, in a sense, he’ll be right. It will be the first election in our nation’s history in which the losing candidate stole the election from himself.
