GameStink! The Stock Is Headed To $20 – Tilson

0
GameStink! The Stock Is Headed To $20 – Tilson

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing the decline in GameStop‘s stock and naming it GameStink; the odds of a hard economic landing in the U.S. by 2023 are growing.

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

GameStink (GameStop) Declines 90% In Eight Trading Days

1) Two weeks ago today, I called the top of the short squeeze bubble – nailing it almost to the hour. In particular, I heaped scorn on GameStop (GME), which hit an intraday high of $483 the next day.

Alkeon expects data growth to surpass 5G’s capabilities by 2028 [Q4 Letter]

Alkeon Growth PartnersAlkeon Growth Partners wrote at length on tech stocks and why they are defensive in their recent letter to investors, which was reviewed by ValueWalk. The fund also highlighted 5G and other advanced technologies and the investment opportunities they offer. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Artificial intelligence and machine learning The Alkeon Read More


Yesterday, the shares hit a low of $46.58 (before closing at $50.31), meaning they declined by a staggering 90% in eight trading days!

So I have a new name for this stock: GameStink! Mark my words: it's going to $20.

Books and documentaries about this absurdity are already underway...

The Odds Of A Hard Economic Landing In The U.S. By 2023

2) I think my friend Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is likely right... Here's his recent missive:

The Odds of a Hard Economic Landing in the U.S. by 2023 Are Growing

  • A boom cycle may be on tap for the second half of 2021 as unprecedented stimulus (25% of GDP!!!) leads to higher interest rates, inflation, and better growth
  • There were mild recessions following the Korean and Vietnam wars – but the scale of the military expenditures during those times were only between 2% to 4% of GDP
  • But that boom will likely be short lived as the drying up of fiscal stimulus will likely lead to a bust within two years
  • Even excessive monetary expansion may not save the U.S. economy as it is taking more and more liquidity to produce a unit of [GDP] production
  • Bookmark this post!

Though this post is short and to the point, the broader consequences for the economy and for the stock market are great.

The anticipated cumulative injection of fiscal stimulus (including the proposed $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus package and the previous $2.2 trillion and $0.9 trillion packages) will total $5 trillion over the last 12 months. This represents almost 25% of the anticipated GDP of $21 trillion.

As former Alliance Bernstein economist Joe Carson mentioned over the weekend – with the exception of World War II there has been nothing like this in history. Stimulus during World War I, in the Great Depression, and in the Great Decession of 2008-2009 didn't come close to the policy initiatives in reaction to COVID-19 – even though those periods had deeply depressed private sector activity. Today we are experiencing a rebounding manufacturing economy led by housing activity and higher home prices.

This chart demonstrates how large the recent stimulus has been in an historic context:

GameStink

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's policy remains extremely aggressive and will be "as far as they eyes can see" – leading to very hot real estate markets around the country, particularly in wealthy communities.

Bottom Line

To me, there is only one inescapable economic conclusion: inflation and interest rates are heading higher as better economic growth in the last half of 2021 is delivered by the unprecedented stimulus.

Unfortunately the stimulus is in the form of mostly transfer payments and not in expansion of productivity or capacity.

As I see it, the economic boom will be a sugar-based high and there is an almost inevitable bust cycle emerging by or in 2023 when the heady fiscal stimulus ends.

Today's record stock prices belie a likely hard economic landing that may lie ahead.

Best regards,

Whitney

Previous article What If Robinhood Traders Are Not Risk Averse?
Next article Mahara Human Resources (1831): Saudi’s Largest Workforce Agency
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

No posts to display