FTSE 350 Look Ahead: WM Morrison, Compass, TUI, And More

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Look ahead to FTSE 350 companies reporting from 10 to 14 May

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Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

  • WM Morrison Supermarkets PLC (LON:MRW) OTCMKTS:MRWSY) will show if it’s harnessed momentum in the online business
  • All eyes will be on the pace of recovery at Compass Group plc (LON:CPG) (OTCMKTS:CMPGY)
  • TUI AG (LON:TUI) OTCMKTS:TUIFY) counts on a traffic light system to save the summer
  • National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) (OTCMKTS:NXPGF) on the slow road to recovery
  • Greggs plc (LON:GRG) (OTCMKTS:GGGSF) shifts its store footprint to help bring home the bacon
  • BT Group (LON:BT.A) (OTCMKTS:BTGOF) might update us on the potential BT Sport sale
  • Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) still faces major headwinds outside it’s booming streaming business

WM Morrison, Q1 Trading Statement, Tuesday 11 May

Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst

“We’ve long said Morrison is an underdog when it comes to online shopping. Its footprint is much smaller than rivals, which isn’t ideal in the current conditions but does create potential for rapid growth. Morrison’s online sales tripled at the full year, and next week we’ll find out if the group’s been able to keep hold of momentum. With life edging towards normal, there’s a chance we could see progress slow. We’ll of course be looking out for progress in the core store business too. Like-for-like sales were moving in the right direction last year, especially in the final quarter. That’s no mean feat in today’s competitive environment and something similar may be necessary this quarter to meet the full year target of over £431m in underlying pre-tax profit.”

Compass Group, Half Year Results, Wednesday 12 May

Steve Clayton, HL Select Fund Manager

“Compass Group’s catering operations around the world were hit hard when the pandemic first broke. With economies reopening, all eyes will be on the pace of recovery and the group’s expectations for the rest of the year and beyond. Compass manage catering in schools, hospitals, sports grounds, offices and factories. How quickly all these venues can return to operating at normal capacity will determine the pace of the group’s recovery and the margins that Compass can earn in the future. Investors will be hoping for signs that Compass’s commitment to clients through the lockdowns will be rewarded with new business opportunities moving forward.”

TUI, Half Year Results, Wednesday 12 May

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst

‘’As the world’s largest tourism and travel operator, TUI’s fragile financial position shows the damage Covid-19 has wreaked on the global travel industry. Despite significant progress in reducing monthly cash burn, TUI posted a €699 million loss for the first quarter with revenues were down 88% with many hotels in key winter sun resorts remaining closed. Yet there are chinks of light appearing in the stormy skies. The introduction of the traffic light system for holiday destinations, offers hope that the summer season won’t be a wash out and the company says it plans to operate 75% of its schedule over the coming months. We’ll be looking out for an update on bookings, but many reservations are likely to be roll overs from last year. So forward guidance for 2022 will be crucial, but with vaccine rollouts accelerating in key markets, hopes are rising that a steady recovery should be the name of the game for TUI. Bail outs from the German government and investors also mean it has a sizeable spade to dig itself out of another hole, if the tide of infections doesn’t recede as quickly as expected.’’

National Express, Q1 Trading Statement, Wednesday 12 May

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst

“With the economy opening up, hopes are rising that National Express can get back out on the road to recovery. But it’s likely to be a two-speed rebound with its US and UK operations likely to show more resilience as businesses, schools and universities return to near normal operations, while its divisions in other parts of the world are slower to recover. The working from home revolution and adoption of e-learning, is still likely to be a drag on revenues, with commuters and to some extent, students likely to travel less in the future. The extent to which working habits change isn’t yet clear, but passenger numbers on trains, coaches and buses are not likely to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels any time soon, so fresh restructuring of the business is still likely to be on the cards.”

Greggs, Trading Statement, Thursday 13 May

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst

“Greggs is still working on its recipe for recovery after falling to a full year loss as the pandemic tore a huge chunk off its bread and butter in-store sales. Rolling out click and collect helped stem losses, as did a tie up with Just Eat takeaway, but flaky sales are expected to continue this year and there is a big reshuffle on the cards in terms of its footprint of stores. It’s not that we have completely lost our insatiable appetite for pies and pastries, instead it’s where we want to buy them which has changed. Footfall in high streets has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, despite the re-opening of hospitality and retail, partly due to the working from home trend. So, as well as focusing on deliveries to bring home the bacon once more, Greggs is opening more stores in suburban neighbourhoods and retail parks which have proved more resilient. With some customers adopting more health-conscious behaviour during the pandemic, we could also expect Greggs’ to offer up new menu choices to try and replicate the hot sales of its vegan sausage roll.’’

BT Group, Full year Results, Thursday 13 May

William Ryder, Equity Analyst

“BT’s full year guidance is for cash profits (EBITDA) of between £7.3bn and £7.5bn, and normalised free cash flow of £1.3bn to £1.5bn. In the first nine months of the year cash profits were down 5% to £5.6bn, implying fourth quarter cash profits of £1.7bn to £1.9bn – compared with £2.0bn last year. Analyst expectations are in the middle of these ranges. We’ll also be paying close attention to FY2022/23 guidance, which is currently for £7.9bn in cash profits and underpins plans to reinstate the dividend. BT also recently made a cryptic announcement about the future of BT Sport. It reads “early discussions are being held with a number of select strategic partners, to explore ways to generate investment, strengthen our sports business, and help take it to the next stage in its growth.” It has been reported that a sale is on the cards, and while our view would be dependent on the price, BT would be giving up a strong asset that helps sets them apart from the competition.”

Disney, Half Year Results, Thursday 13 May

Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst

“The launch of Disney+, hitting 94.9m subscribers in January, has been a bright light in what have otherwise been some pretty dark times for the media giant. Visitor numbers in the theme parks division look set to remain well below normal, while the ongoing switch to streaming does not bode well for the group’s ABC broadcast network or cable outlets like ESPN. Despite those headwinds, Disney managed to post an underlying profit in the first quarter. Restructuring related to the pandemic should decline going forwards, potentially boosting results through the rest of the year. But the real focus in these results will be on the strength of recovery in Parks and to a lesser degree on continued growth in Disney+. We don’t think either will show transformational progress this time round, but direction of travel is key.”

FTSE 350 & Other Companies Reporting Next Week

10-May
Provident Financial Full Year Results
Victrex Half Year Results

 

11-May
WM Morrison* Q1 Trading Statement

 

12-May
Airtel Africa Full Year Results
Coca Cola HBC Q1 Trading Statement
Compass Group* Half Year Results
National Express Q1 Trading Statement
Spirax-Sarco Engineering Trading Statement
TI Fluid Systems Q1 Trading Statement
TUI Half Year Results

 

13-May
3i Group Full Year Results
Brewin Dolphin Holdings Half Year Results
BT Group* Full Year Results
Burberry* Full Year Results
Contour Global Q1 Trading Statement
Countryside Properties Half Year Results
Disney* Half Year Results
Elementis Trading Statement
Grainger Half Year Results
Greggs Trading Statement
Hargreaves Lansdown Trading Statement

 

14-May
Sage Group Half Year Results

 

*Companies on which we will be writing research


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