The recovery of the U.S. economy has been threatened by the Covid surge led by the Delta variant. However, experts agree that the country seems to be “turning the tide” against it, and a rebound is happening slowly.
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Delta Variant Rate
CNBC reports that cases are still increasing –with a rate of 150,000 a day– albeit at a slower pace, “giving rise to hope that business and consumer activity can keep the economy on track toward pre-pandemic levels.”
Chris Meekins, health policy research analyst at Raymond James, said in a note: “The percent increases in cases and hospitalizations are declining each week, indicating progression towards a nationwide peak.”
“While a few days later than predicted, the Southern states that were initially hardest hit by the delta variant appear to be peaking or have peaked.”
While the Delta variant is the dominant one, the expert asserts that the rate of increase for cases has decelerated to 11.7% as hospitalization levels stand at 14.7%. This is significantly less than 32% and 37% respectively, two weeks ago.
This positive trend has had an effect on the economy as KPIs have slowly bounced back amid concerns about how the Delta variant might behave in the near future.
Mobility Is Increasing
Mobility among people has certainly increased, as “the numbers for recreation showed continued strong gains, though they were well off their peaks” by mid-August, CNBC informs.
“Mobility for parks, beaches, and other public areas was up 31% from the five-week period prior to mid-February 2020, less than a month before the official pandemic declaration.”
However, as companies are holding off on employees’ return to office, workplace mobility remains sluggish, down 33% from pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, traffic at transit stations tailed off by 23%.
“Retail and recreation also remain a shade below, while grocery and pharmacy activity has resumed to a bit above.”
Tom Lee, research head at Fundstrat, says that data on Monday revealed how some of the states with the severest Delta variant surges are now reporting a drop in accumulative cases: California, Nevada, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Maine, Rhode Island, and Delaware.
Other nine states seem “tentatively flattening” according to available data, such as New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Washington.
“We will have a better sense for these states in the coming days … But the key takeaway, to me, is that even with the delta variant, states are not going to see cases surge indefinitely. There is a peak,” Lee concludes.