Despite Millions Spent, Prop 22 Failing to Get Majority Support

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Despite Millions Spent, Prop 22 Failing to Get Majority Support
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Gig Workers Rising statement on new polling showing Prop 22 failing to get majority support

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Prop 22 Failing To Get Majority Support

Today, a new poll showed that, despite a 10-1 funding advantage by gig companies like Uber and Lyft, support for Prop 22 is still neck-and-neck with opposition in California and that support for the measure is failing to reach the 50% + 1 it will need to become law.

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The new poll from the Institute for Governmental Studies at U.C. Berkeley shows that support for Proposition 22 is still tied with the opposition, despite new numbers late last week that showed Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Instacart, and Postmates had poured more than $199 million into the ballot measure. Opposition has raised some $19.6 million.

The poll shows supporters at 46% with opponents at 42%, and some 12% of those polled still undecided. This is with a 2% likely margin of error, meaning the results are essentially tied.

We also know that a plurality of Californians who are voting for the measure are being misled by gig companies: According to a Capitol Weekly tracking poll of 23,500 voters who’ve returned ballots, a full 40% of those who voted for Prop. 22 thought they were ensuring drivers a living wage.

The Actual Take-Home Wage For Drivers

We know that’s not true. Prop 22 only covers wage guarantees for engaged time—time that drivers spend ferrying a customer around, despite a report commissioned by Uber and Lyft themselves showing that as much as a third of the time that drivers spend working is spent waiting for rides.

None of that time would be counted under Prop 22, and, as the U.C. Berkeley Labor Center has shown, the actual hourly wage drivers are expected to receive is closer to $5.64—not minimum wage by any definition, and definitely not the liveable wage voters are told applies.

Californians are being tricked into voting for this measure. The flood of misleading advertising promising a living wage is pushing voters sympathetic to drivers' plights to support Prop 22 without knowing that the actual take-home wage for drivers will be a poverty wage. The companies know they can't win on the merits, so they're hoping a spending blitz will prevent them from having to take care of their drivers once and for all.

But even those millions aren't working as intended. For Prop. 22 to be so close to defeat, with a 10-1 funding advantage, should be deeply embarrassing for these multi-billion dollar companies, and heartening for drivers and workers across California.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver
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