PHILADELPHIA-Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia said today that recent developments globally will impact everyone economically-and soon. Indeed, we could be headed towards full-fledged global recession very soon.
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We Are Headed Towards A Full-Fledged Global Recession
“Make no mistake about it, we will be in a full-fledged global recession in just a matter of weeks,” Celia said, “and the United States will not be excluded from this recession. We obviously can’t be in a technical recession at least until the end of June, since a recession is defined as back-to-back negative GDP quarters. But we will be in a financial and emotional recession with or without the technicals. The question is, how long will it last?
“One of the things I am most concerned about in the financial sector, and which I’ve written about for many months and more recently emphasized on air, is that we are watching our big five banks take huge hits,” he added. “But my main concern, of course, is not just the big banks but the shadow banking system. Remember, so much of the financial system seems to have moved, expanded and grown in the derivative markets, credit default swaps, insurance company annuities and other so-called financial products. The only way I believe we can head this off, or at least get ahead of it, will be through policy. I’m talking about federal government policy, stimulus and policies coming out of the Federal Reserve.”
This Isn't A Time To Panic
Celia noted that last night the Federal Reserve dramatically changed the repo rates, or overnight lending, by adding much more liquidity.
“But more needs to be done besides cutting rates-that will do nothing,” Celia said. “President Trump has submitted his thoughts about stimulating the economy. I think the payroll tax holiday was an extremely good proposal, but, of course, partisan politics will likely allow us to go into deep recession or depression before any kind of stimulus policies will be allowed to come out of the Trump administration, which is a shame. Many are saying that American politicians must put their differences aside and come together. These are people living in the Twilight Zone of politics from 40 years ago. It’s not going to happen. And if it doesn’t happen, we’ll begin to see liquidity issues that will be extremely harmful to an already falling market.
“Short-term economic conditions have hurt the markets,” he added, “and what we don’t want to see—and I suspect it might be too late—is the market circling around to create more issues for the economy and then, again, the economy impacts the markets further. This is a vicious cycle, and we should want to do everything we can to avoid it. But do politicians in Washington want to avoid it too?
“Having said all that, this is not a time to panic,” Celia concluded. “We cannot sell if we are long-term investors. We cannot afford to panic. There will be major buying opportunities either in a month or six months. I would expect to see another 5% to 10% downturn today, and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon unless there is a major announcement about a coronavirus vaccine being available in the next few weeks. Again, financially, this is not a time to panic, and we could be facing a buying opportunity the likes of which few of us have seen in our lifetime, but I do believe we are some weeks away from that.”
