Trade Tariffs, Gold, Platinum, Palladium, & Equities Update

This week we cover a detailed precious metals update for the price of gold in 2019. We’ll also look at the price movements of platinum, palladium, and the equities markets. Trade Tariffs caused market movement across the board earlier this week, how will the markets settle as the week comes to a close?

Trade Tariffs, Gold, Platinum, Palladium, & Equities Update – Golden Rule Radio

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Transcript

Welcome back to Golden Rule Radio. Since last week when the markets were selling off big time because of the tariffs. Markets have rebounded a little bit.

The stock market that is gold liked the debate between Trump and China on the tariffs and has has risen back up to the thirteen hundred level busted through just barely and now it's pulling back on Wednesday here about 12 95 96 few weeks ago when it was around twelve seventy I was a little bit more aggressive than you an entry Miles about this being a good opportunity to be buying. Not that we're not going to see those well made. Twelve hundred levels but we bounce from twelve seventy with gold up to thirteen hundred and just off of that today. Where do you see us going from here. Sure and I think this comes into the argument of technicals and fundamentals and what's actually pushing the market short term and long term so that's a good way to put it. Low quick recap. You know we've had the step down pattern in gold since about February and March earlier this year we came into that 50 percent Fib retracement level with divergence. So having a bounce back up makes sense. Obviously we had a fundamental reason that we have that gold pop last week. But I would argue and continue to argue that unless we see 13 10 or above and really back in the 13 20s I'm still arguing down. You know you have a three step down divergence.

You have a retracement of that divergence that doesn't always signal a reversal that could just be kind of a break in the short term trend. So I'm sticking with 12 45 as my low point on gold for those of you sitting waiting for an entry point over the next couple weeks. If we get above 13 10 I actually probably would go ahead and pull the trigger on a purchase of gold at 13 10 13 11 but in the meantime I'm waiting for a slightly better opportunity. Yeah. And I think over the next few weeks you are very likely to be right. It would line up with the seasonal pattern that we've watched over the last few years with gold bottoming in this May to July timeframe. After that after this pullback. Sure if we get it. August September the weakness seasonally that we're we should have what happens. Well let's not forget we're halfway through May already. So we're not talking too far down the road. And I think to throw out a different argument maybe this has to do with the tariff conversation. But I do want to briefly bring out the court report from the previous week and this past week about two weeks ago Silver was flat leaning a little heavier on the short side. However both platinum and palladium were pretty aggressively long when you were looking at the Managed Money side palladium eleven times more long platinum three times as many contracts long but gold was dead even. So you get back to the end of April.

Gold traders and manage money was looking at a dead even market between Long and short contracts. Lo and behold we have our market move last week and when the May 7th report came out gold is actually 10 percent more long than short. So there is some managed money out there who's expecting to see the price go a little bit higher. So I certainly could be wrong when we're just looking specifically at the charts and the action that's happening and that's where the fundamental discussion becomes valuable. Yeah jumping to platinum platinum is giving you another opportunity to buy at below 900. It was rising well and kind of bouncing around 850. It's today a little bit lower than 850 and I wouldn't be waiting on platinum because the trade talks actually could start to benefit these industrial metals as we go back and forth and argue over different tariffs and try to settle something. It really could heat up the price of some of these commodities. Sure in the 850 Mark has held three times now since we started this month.

So just over the last couple weeks although the bounces are getting more shallow so each high following the last 850 test the last two at least has been shallower than the previous. So we'll have to see what the bounce here is over the next week. But if platinum gets back up above that 382 fed back into the 8 60s 8 70s then we could be off to the races on platinum and what do we say about palladium. I mean it's just been defying the rest of the action in the precious metals market and it is touched just below thirteen hundred for the first time since almost the first of the year. So it's gone down to a newer low it's bounced back up above thirteen hundred but it has it peaked. Do you do you think that we've seen the top or what. Gerry it's certainly been defying the other metals both on the upside and the downside but volatility begets volatility I guess. I don't know. You know it's a good question. I mean if we if we get a kick off in the industrial commodities.




About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver