On the grand scene of financial innovations, the exchange-traded fund was fairly innocuous at first. It took a good 15 years for people to figure out how disruptive they would ultimately be
I’d argue that the ETF revolution is less about ETFs and more about indexing; about how people have come to view stocks less as stocks and more as blobs of stocks.
(I wrote about the passive investing revolution and its implications in my free exclusive special report, Investing in the Age of the Everything Bubble, which you can download here)
After spending a career in indexes in some capacity, I am no longer much of a stock-picker. All my ideas are top-down.
Since the financial crisis, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has had significant exposure to financial stocks in its portfolio. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more At the end of March this year, Bank of America accounted for nearly 15% of the conglomerate's vast equity portfolio. Until very recently, Wells Fargo was also a prominent Read More
I like oil. I like France. Instead of finding an oil stock or a French stock, I buy all oil stocks or all French stocks. Seems easier—what if I bought the wrong oil stock or the wrong French stock? I’m happy to take the average.
Finance is funny.
There are a lot of things in the capital markets that make sense when a few people do it, but not when everybody does it.
More Indexes Than Stocks
The thing about buying all oil companies is that you are buying the bad ones as well as the good ones—and driving all of their valuations higher.
Back in 2004 at Lehman, we observed that correlations among stocks in the same sector were increasing, at least on an intraday basis. Think about it: If oil goes up, companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips should all go up—on a micro, minute-by-minute basis. So, you could still make money in the long term by picking the best integrated oil major, but day trading them against each other became useless.
Fast forward to 2017, and the stock market is a sea of baskets trading against baskets. A lot of people have learned their lesson—the only thing that works is buy and hold. Which I think is a good thing!
But a lot of people still find it hard to stick to buy and hold.
Anyway, there are now more indices than stocks. Some people say this is a bit ridiculous. Well, back in the mutual fund boom, there were more mutual funds than stocks, and everything turned out fine. Is indexing causing distortions? Is it wrecking the markets?
Maybe a little. But even then, the argument is very nuanced.
The Philosophy of Indexing
The whole point of an ETF or index is that you can buy a bunch of stocks or bonds which are more or less alike or share similar characteristics. You don’t have to go to the trouble of picking individual stocks or bonds, which can be time consuming.
So let me ask you a question: Do all US stocks share similar characteristics?
Well, they are all in the US (duh) and are subject to the same political and economic forces. But that’s where it ends. You can’t get more different companies than Amazon and Newmont Mining. Or Goldman Sachs and US Steel.
So why put them all in the same basket?
I’m driving at something here—My theory is that indexing is most useful on narrowly-defined groups of stocks and less useful on the really big blobs.
The worst offenders are total market indices, EAFE, and of course, the world index. Why would anyone get long the planet? I happen to be very bearish on the planet. Cybersecurity stocks, on the other hand, make more sense.
Plowing a bunch of money into “the market” simply because it is “going up” is not smart. Just like putting all of your money in SPY is not going to cut it. Because someday, everyone will want all of their money out of SPY… at the same time.
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As a Wall Street veteran and former Lehman Brothers head of ETF trading, Jared Dillian has traded through two bear markets.
Now, he’s staking his reputation on a call that a downturn is coming. And soon.
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