Change And Investing

Change And Investing

By Investment Master Class

“Nothing endures but change” Heraclitus

“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” John K Galbraith

ValueWalk’s August 2021 Hedge Fund Update: Point72 Suffers Loss; Hedge Fund Assets Hit $4 Trillion

Welcome to our latest issue of ValueWalk’s hedge fund update. Below subscribers can find an excerpt in text and the full issue in PDF format. Please send us your feedback! Featuring Point72 Asset Management losing about 10% in January, Millennium Management on a hiring spree, and hedge fund industry's assets under management swell to nearly Read More

“One has to be a student of change.  Everything changes.  I just don’t believe you can have confidence in any industry for an infinite length of time”  Roy Neuberger

“Facts change, we changeBruce Berkowitz

“A wise man changes his mind: a fool never” William D Gann

“You have to kind of listen to the market and be willing to have you stories challenged and be willing to change them.   There’s a distinction between sticking to your beliefs that you know to be true and sticking to an opinion or theory you have that may or may not be true.” Dan Loeb

“Conviction.  Conviction.  Conviction.  New facts.  Change”  Marc Andreessen

Change, the investors only certainty”  T. Rowe Price

“The only thing you can count on is change.  Even if the fundamental environment were to remain unchanged – which it won’t – risk/return prospects would change because (a) investors will move the prices of assets, certainly in relative terms, and (b) investor psychology will change.  That is why no strategy, tactic or opinion will work forever” Howard Marks

“Markets change radically, every five years that I’ve seen.  Markets aren’t nearly as good at discounting the future as people think”  John Burbank

“A significant number of companies disappeared almost overnight over the last decade (the corporate cemetery is full of companies formerly believed to be indestructible). Nevertheless, others were born or reborn and became titans of industry within a few years (Google, Apple, Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, PetroChina, Tata Group, etc.) If there is one constant in the business world, it is change!” Francois Rochon

“Obviously all business change to some extent” Warren Buffett

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"One cannot make an investment and take for granted that its worth will remain unchanged. New sources of supply coming from hitherto untapped areas of the world may transform the competitive position of a company, as will changes in people's habits or technological innovations. Often something will shrink in value because of one discovery, as coal did in relation to oil and electricity, only to be given new economic life by another development such as the new chemical uses being made of coal.  Actually one can point to only a few things whose value has resisted the change of time down through the centuries - and even then not without fluctuations. Among these I would list some minerals like gold, silver, and copper precious stones, works of art; and crop bearing lands.   Even with these things one must add the qualification "at least so far."   Bernard Baruch 1957

"Fortunes change; there's no assurance that major companies won't become minor, and there's no such thing as a can't miss blue-chip" Peter Lynch

"Most businesses are subject to change if you stay with them long enough.  There's not a single business that I know of that will never change"  Li Lu

"In studying the investments we have made in both subsidiary companies and common stocks, you will see that we favor businesses and industries unlikely to experience major change. The reason for that is simple: Making either type of purchase, we are searching for operations that we believe are virtually certain to possess enormous competitive strength ten or twenty years from now.  A fast changing industry environment may offer the chance for huge wins, but it precludes the certainty we seek." Warren Buffett

“Those who will not face improvements because they are changes, will face changes that are not improvements” Charlie Munger

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"Probably one of my greatest assets over the last 30 years is that I’m open-minded and I can change my mind very quickly."  Stanley Druckenmiller

"Really good traders are also capable of changing their minds in an instant.  They can be dogmatic in their opinion and then immediately change it" Steve Clark

"The key is to constantly adapt and find the strategy that works" Bruce Kovner

"Traders who are successful over the long run adapt.  If they do use rules, and you meet them 10 years later, they will have broken those rules.  Why? Because the world has changed"  Colm O'Shea

“In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind will soon have no change to mind” W.D Gann

"If you know that the stock doesn't know you own it, you are ahead of the game. You are ahead because you can change your mind and your actions without regard to what you did or thought yesterday"  Adam Smith, The Money Game

“My perculiarity is that I don’t have a particular style of investing, or, more exactly, I try to change my style to fit conditions” George Soros

“There is a place and time for every style.” Larry Robbins

“When you're betting the ranch and the circumstances change, you have to change, and that's how I've always managed money” Stanley Druckenmiller

"In the stock market, in investing, there is nothing permanent except change.  The investment manager should try to cultivate a mix of healthy scepticism, open-mindedness, and willingness to listen. It is not easy"  Barton Biggs

“One of the things I most want to emphasize is how essential it is that one's investment approach be intuitive and adaptive rather than fixed and mechanistic" Howard Marks

“Never adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try to stay flexible, open-minded, and sceptical. Long term top results are achieved only by changing from popular to unpopular the type of securities you favour and your methods of selection” Sir John Templeton

“Above all, we were flexible, opportunistic, and unconstrained in where we would and could invest” Michael Steinhardt

"This is an opportunistic business. You need to be very flexible" Mohnish Pabrai

"To achieve balance one must be flexible.  I know an investor who bought his first bond after 50 years of doing very well without bonds.  He was flexible enough to realise that after half a century, the time had come"Roy Neuberger

“Sir John Templeton said something to me and it stuck in my mind and I didn’t do anything about it at the time. We were on a roll of fifteen years of wonderful results, no down years, a high compound rate of return and some money coming in. He said something which I thgink is correct, and that Graham also talks about; ‘always change a winning game’. I didn’t do it because I was on a roll then and I wasn’t flexible enough.” Peter Cundill

“Expect and react to change. No bull market is permanent. No bear market is permanent. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. The pace of change is too great. Being relaxed, as Hooper advised, doesn’t mean being complacent” Sir John Templeton

"If the world were constant, without change, analytical skills would be all that was necessary for successful investing.  Economic models would work perfectly, as correlations would be static and thus predictable.  Unfortunately, a'la Allen Toffler's Future Shock, not only is there change in the world, but its pace is accelerating." Bennett Goodspeed 1978

“The biggest risk we worry about is not adapting to the times and participating in change. That’s what keeps us on our toes.” Chris Davis

"The ability to learn new ways to look at value allows you to make some profitable investments that you may well have overlooked had you not adapted to the times" Chris Browne

“The screwiest thing you can do is to think you're a master of the universe. We're all just little cogs, and the universe will go on without us. We have to fit into it and adapt to it. Change is inevitable. The only constant is impermanence. We have to accommodate to the fact that the wheel turns and the environment changes. It's very helpful to view the world as behaving cyclically and oscillating rather than going in a straight line. Everything is cyclical.” Howard Marks

"To be successful in the markets, you have to be willing to change your opinion.  Most people are not willing to change their opinion.  You have to be humble about your ideas"  Joe Vidich

"While investors and managers must place their feet in the future, their memories and nervous systems often remain plugged into the past.  When change is slow, constant rethinking is actually undesirable; it achieves little and slows response time.  But when change is great, yesterday's assumptions can be retained only at great cost"  Warren Buffett

"I'm looking for businesses that I think are unlikely to experience a lot of change in the future" Allan Mecham

"There are no easy answers about what personal qualities make for survival and longevity, but a successful manager is one who has found a balance between discipline and flexibility, between the courage of his convictions and the need to desert the battlefield in order to live to fight another day"  Paul Singer

"Remember the world is always changing.  Be aware of change. Buy change.  You should be willing to buy or sell anything.  So many people say, "I could never buy that kind of stock," "I could never buy utilities,", "I could never play commodities." You should be flexible and alert to investing in anything" Jim Rogers

“Nothing is constant, that’s the interesting thing about business, that’s why you have to keep re-learning.  The analysis or conclusion could be different in a couple of years. All sorts of things will cause change. And that’s a good thing.  That’s why people with active minds, actively prepared and have the psychological temperament to be able act when they see insight and opportunity will always have a chance to be fabulously rich”  Li Lu

"I think about how the world is changing and then I look to understand companies, or companies that are changing in ways I didn't expect make me then go up and try and understand what are the broader things going on, so I can see a pattern emerge, and try and take advantage of that" John Burbank

“Whatever the outcome, we will heed a prime rule of investing; you don’t have to make it back the way you lost it” Warren Buffett

“It is easy for a discretionary trader to become obsessed with a particular market that has delivered a few straight losing trades, thinking that the market owes him something. This is a bad mental state to enter. Being compelled to recoup losses from a particular market in the same market is a dangerous practice.” Peter Brandt

"If you make a big bet, be open-minded, if the situation changes, you must change." Stanley Druckenmiller

"My views change as economic, political, and technological changes occur on our planet and sometimes out in space.  It is imputative that you be willing to change your thoughts to meet new conditions"  Roy Neuberger

"We strive to be intellectually honest at all times, maintaining a willingness to change our mind when we are wrong" Seth Klarman

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"As Darwin described, adaption ie adjusting appropriately to changes in one's circumstances - is a big part of the evolutionary process, and it is rewarded" Ray Dalio

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"Everything is in a constant state of change, and the wise investor recognises that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions" Sir John Templeton

"The world changes. It keeps spinning, and things don't stay the same, so you always need to be working and learning and studying to make sure that your circles of competence are relevant"  Thomas Gayner

"We always welcome the challenge [of well-developed counterviews] and remain committed to changing our view in the face of a more compelling argument" Jim Mooney

"The investment world has clearly changed and you have to change with it or you become a dinosaur." Ed Wachenheim

"The lesson for me is that things change. Seldom do businesses stay great for decades. So we have to always keep an opened mind and not lose track of the fundamentals of a company we own shares in."  Francois Rochon

"Sooner or later every popular fast growing industry becomes a slow growing industry, and numerous analysts and prognosticators are fooled.  There's always a tendency to think things will never change, but inevitably they do"  Peter Lynch

"Embracing change as a constant is not consensus wisdom...  it is the stark reality of humanity. Human nature does a better job of taking experience and observations, and extrapolating them to infinity: great will remain great, good will remain good, and poor will remain poor. We attempt to counter human nature by embracing change as its own checkpoint in our investment process." Christopher Begg

"Many stocks bought at a time when they were deemed good investments have later met with drastically changed conditions. Hence such so-called "investment stocks'' frequently become purely speculative. Some go out of existence altogether. The original "investment" evaporates into thin air along with the capital of the investor. This occurrence is due to the failure to realize that so-called "investments" may be called upon in the future to face a new set of conditions which would jeopardize the earning capacity of the stock, originally bought for a permanent investment. Before the investor learns of this changed situation, the value of his investment is already greatly depreciated. Therefore the investor must guard his capital account just as the successful speculator does in his speculative ventures. If this were done, those who like to call themselves "investors" would not be forced to become unwilling speculators of the future -nor would trust fund accounts depreciate so much in their value" Jesse Livermore

"I should emphasise that, as citizens, Charlie and I welcome change; Fresh ideas, new products, innovative processes and the like cause our country's standard of living to rise, and that's clearly good.  As investors, however, our reaction to a fermenting industry is much like our attitude toward space exploration: We applaud the endeavour but prefer to skip the ride" Warren Buffett

"Of the fifty most important stocks on the NYSE in 1911, today only one, General Electric, remains in business.. That's how powerful the forces of competitive destruction are.  Over the very long term, history shows that the chances of any business surviving in a manner agreeable to a company's owners are slim at best" Charlie Munger

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