Value Investing

Shiller PE Future Returns

We recently spoke to Meb Faber who putsĀ outĀ the most comprehensive research on global CAPE (Shiller PE) levels. Meb just came out with some interesting data for his 2013 outlook. One of the points discussed in the article is future returns based on CAPE. The study is based on data from 1881-2011. Based on where we are now (CAPE of 20-25), real returns should be low single digits. The chart, which shows returns, based on the CAPE level can be found on page four of the document embedded below:

2013 Outlook by