India Growing Twice as Fast as China

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India Growing Twice as Fast as China

Watch the video with Andrew Stotz or read a summary below. This post focuses on economic and population basics of five select markets in Asia.

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Majority of Countries in Asia Have Room to Grow GDP per Capita before Their Populations’ Age

Tiny Singapore and Hong Kong have the highest per capita GDP

  • China’s per capita GDP is impressive given size
  • India has opportunity to expand per capita GDP for decades
  • Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have big population

India Growing Twice as Fast as China

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • India is growing twice as fast as China
  • Above average growth in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Philippines
  • Korea and Thailand have the slowest growth
  • In Japan, population is shrinking

Youth Will Soon Drive India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Lost Youth in Thailand

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • China has the largest labor force, but India has more young people about to join
  • Japan has the largest percentage of old folks
  • Relatively rich Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore are all facing aging population
  • Less rich Thailand is at risk

India, Pakistan, and the Philippines Have an Abundance of Youth

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand and Vietnam now have the largest share of the population in working age
  • However, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines have a large share of young dependents to join the labor force in the future

Thailand and Vietnam Are Facing Aging Population

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand and Vietnam are getting old, but not rich
  • Unlike Japan which got rich and then old, moving its per capita GDP to a recent USD39,000
  • Thailand only recently hit USD6,000, while Vietnam is at USD2,200

Banking Issues Faced by Both India and Pakistan with about a 10% NPL Ratio

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Philippine banking sector is in the best shape
  • High, but stable non-performing loans in Pakistan
  • India’s bad loans are rising fast

Only Thailand Is a Major Exporter

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

The Philippines has recently become very dependent on imports and has not matched that with exports or re-exports of imported products

Inflation and Unemployment Rate Are Very Low in Thailand

India, Indonesia, Pakistan

  • Thailand has very low inflation and unemployment rate, Vietnam has low as well
  • India has the highest inflation at almost 5%
  • Pakistan and the Philippines have relatively high unemployment
In 1992 Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA, left a management career at Pepsi-Cola in California to teach finance in Thailand. In 1993, he found his life calling as a financial analyst, a job for which he was eventually voted #1 in Thailand. In the second half of his 20-year career in investment banking, Dr. Stotz was a Head of Research, leading teams of financial analysts. He served as a two-term president of CFA Society Thailand and now runs his firm, A. Stotz Investment Research, which provides research and tools for institutions and high-net-worth investors and helps CEOs make their companies financially world class.
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