Commenting on this morning’s Volkswagon Power Day market strategist Louis Navellier wrote in a note to investors:
Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Money Is Fleeing Tesla
Overall, money is fleeing Tesla (TSLA) as serious competition emerges and the new EV winners are Volkswagon (VWAGY), QuantumScape (QS), NIO Limited (NIO), Ford (F) and General Motors (GM).
QuantumScape (QS) remains the most likely company to be first to market with solid-state batteries vis the VW Artemis project.
The Chinese government continues to invest in both NIO and Xpeng, (XPNG) so both these stocks are expected to be big winners. VW Group (VWAGY) has ambitious EV plans and will likely pass Tesla in overall EV sales in 2023.
Tesla stock remains under pressure and the new EV winners are likely to be VWAGY and QS. Ford (F) and GM are also emerging as serious Tesla competitors, since the Mach-e is a real Tesla competitor and GM has lower priced EVs via the Bolt & Bolt SUV.
Currently VW Group (including Audi and Porsche) offers 13 EV vehicles and will have 25 EVs in the upcoming years as Audi, SEAT, Porsche and VW introduce more electric vehicles.
Tesla EV Sales In Europe Slip
Tesla has slipped to 5th in EV sales in Europe in the first two months of 2021, and is expected to dump more lower priced Chinese made Model 3s (without cobalt and lower range), so Tesla may have a quarter-end sales surge as it has in previous quarters.
Tesla has been under increasing scrutiny from Chinese regulators this year over quality problems, such as failing LED screens as memory fills up. This pressure from Chinese regulators temporally impeded Tesla's Chinese sales in January.
Due to slower than expected sales in China and Europe this year, Tesla remains more dependent on emerging market sales as well as the U.S., which is its strongest market until the Ford Mach-e and other EV competitors put a dent in Tesla's U.S. marketshare.
Also impeding Tesla is that it stopped it referral program on 12/31/2020 resulting in Tesla promotors on YouTube no longer getting Powerwalls, Model 3s and even 80 Tesla Roadsters. These YouTube channels are increasingly being sponsored by Chinese EV companies like Xpeng.
Other Key Volkswagon Power Day Points:
- VW will have 6 gigafactories making batteries in Europe in partnership with Northvolt and other partners (e.g., LG Chem, CATL, Samsung and SK Innovation) and expects to lower lithium battery costs by 50% as these gigafactories scale up
- VW will utilize three different lithium battery technologies (two without cobalt), but the ultimate goal is solid-state batteries via QuantumScape (QS)
- The best lithium batteries with cobalt and silicon graphite anode are currently being used in the Audi GT and Porsche Taycan
- The Artemis, code named Landjet, is expected to be VW's first solid-state battery vehicle in 2025 and will have Audi, Bentley and Porsche versions; and
- VW has started a project program to utilize lithium batteries to run apartments and homes, which will be critical for EV battery recycling as they start a 2nd life after being used for EVs.
