The King Report November 1, 2019 Issue 6126
Instead of Halloween, it was Groundhog Day for stocks on Thursday.
- ESZs slid during Asian trading on disappointing economic data.
- ESZs rallied when Europe opened, abetted by positive economic data
- ESZs tumbled when China doubted that Phase Two-∞ could occur
- Kudlow surfaced to rescue stocks after the trade-talks related decline.
- Trump surfaced to tout the Phase One trade deal
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Gates Capital Management's ECF Value Funds have a fantastic track record. The funds (full-name Excess Cash Flow Value Funds), which invest in an event-driven equity and credit strategy Read More
Samsung posts a steep earnings plunge
The world’s largest memory chipmaker said September-quarter operating profit fell by 56% to 7.8 trillion won ($6.7 billion), slightly above the 7.7 trillion won estimate the company released earlier. Revenue fell 5.3% to 62 trillion won, in line with its earlier estimates... https://reut.rs/34kKzIr
China’s October Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 from 49.8: 49.8 was expected. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.8 from 53.7; 53.6 was expected.
China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump
Stage 1 in the works but Chinese downplay prospect for others
Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest issues, according to people familiar with the matter. They remain concerned about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks…
Beijing is open and willing to continue talks after an initial phase, but both sides recognize that it will be very difficult to reach an agreement on the deep structural reforms the U.S. is pushing for, said one Chinese official familiar with the talks…
“Even if they do get a phase one, a phase two is going to be substantially more difficult because all the really difficult issues are being deferred,” said Eswar Prasad, who once led the International Monetary Fund’s China team and is now at Cornell University…
Euro-Area Economy Puts Up Fight with Better-Than-Forecast Growth
3Q GDP rises 0.2%, with France, Italy beating expectations
For the European Central Bank, inflation remains a worry though, with the headline rate dropping to 0.7% in October, slipping further from the goal of just below 2%. Core prices showed an unexpected pickup to 1.1%, but remained within the range this year…
Spain offered more positive news, keeping a 0.4% pace in the third quarter. France, less exposed to trade difficulties and more reliant on domestic demand, posted growth of 0.3%. Italy’s economy managed only 0.1%, but that was at least slightly better than the stagnation that was forecast…
BBG 8:44 ET: Kudlow Says U.S.-China Talks Going Smoothly: White House Aide
9:24 ET @realDonaldTrump: China and the USA are working on selecting a new site for signing of Phase One of Trade Agreement, about 60% of total deal, after APEC in Chile was canceled due to unrelated circumstances. The new location will be announced soon. President Xi and President Trump will do signing!
ESZs opened on their session high of 3052. They fell to an Asian session low of 3045. The early European rally topped out at 3051.25 at 4:23 ET. The tumble on the disappointing US-China trade news pushed ESZs to a session low of 3033.50 at 5:47 ET.
After a modest rally into the US repo market opening, ESZs retreated until Kudlow happened. ESZs hit 3046.25 six minutes before the NSYE open – the same time as Trump’s above tweet. But, saner angles had the red tickets ready. ESZs and stocks tumbled when the Chicago PMI was reported at 9:45 ET.
The Chicago PMI for October tumbled to 43.2 from 47.1; 48 was expected. New Orders declined to 37.0, the lowest since March 2009. Except for December 2015 (42.1), the previous 8 times that the Chicago PMI printed below 44, the US was in recession. The GM strike might mitigate the October reading.
@DiMartinoBooth: "The NY Fed has a recession probability model that is based off of the 3-month/10-year inversion. Since 1950 every time that curve is inverted for 3 months or more it has indicated recession" - Fox Business
The ugly Chicago PMI unleashed spirited defensive asset allocation. Bonds, utilities, gold and other safe haven plays rallied sharply. Stocks, oil, copper and other industrial commodities plunged.
WaPo: A divided House passes resolution on impeachment inquiry, setting stage for televised hearings and release of witness testimony [2 Dems voted no with the entire GOP]
House approves symbolic impeachment inquiry resolution https://yhoo.it/2Wrwm9Q
Trump blames impeachment inquiry for stock market dip [He’s wrong! If the market believed impeachment was viable, it would collapse. However, Trump can and will blame Democrats if a recession appears.] https://trib.al/vLsdoJt
@RepDLesko: This resolution for a sham impeachment process is a farce: Transcripts aren't required to be made public - Exculpatory evidence does not have to be turned over. Democrats are misleading the public once again. This does not open up the process, nor does it provide transparency.
@ByronYork: Dems have more secret depositions scheduled for next week… Resolution contains no requirement to release transcripts. As for public hearings, no requirement beyond one. All at Schiff discretion… Blue state impeachment. Dem leaders addressing press today--Schiff, Nadler, Maloney, Jeffries, Engel, McGovern--hail from New York, California, and Massachusetts. Specifically, four from NYC, one from Hollywood, and one from Mass.
@thebradfordfile: Democrats are sacrificing Joe Biden to protect Obama. It's not going to work.
“Their hatred of the president exceed their caring about this country and its people.” – Chuck Schumer
“It is simply antithetical to our constitutional Democracy to use impeachment to overturn an election on partisan grounds… It would trample upon the choice made by the people through the electoral process and do great harm…. Federalist 65 also sounds a warning… that impeachments inevitably risk being hijacked by partisan political forces …The Framers of the Constitution knew that the greatest danger associated with impeachment was the presence of partisan factions that could dictate the outcome.” – Joe Biden Senate Floor Speech February 12, 1999
“Benjamin Franklin called impeachment, "a substitute for assassination… The effect of impeachment is to overturn the popular will of the voters as expressed in a national election. The people elected the president. They still support him. We have no right to overturn the considered judgment of the American people.” – Rep. Jerry Nadler, House Judiciary Committee hearing, December 10, 1998
“I think it [impeachment] has a traumatic impact on the confidence that the American people have in government.” -- Nancy Pelosi
“Jefferson feared that even our process for impeachment could be a formidable partisan weapon. He feared that a determined faction in Congress would use it ‘… for getting rid of any man whom they consider as dangerous to their views, and I do not know that we could count on one-third in an emergency.’” -- Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) 2/12/1999
ESZs hit the session low of 3020.25 at 10:35 ET. ESZ rallies failed until the last hour of trading because defensive allocators kept selling ESZ and stocks while buying bonds and USZs. When USZs [Dec. 30-yr bond futures] closed at 15:00 ET, selling of ESZs diminished. Add in the late manipulation to embellish October performance and presto! A rally appeared.
US Initial jobless claims increased 5,000 to 218,000 due to the California wildfires.
BOJ sends clearer signal of rate cut chance; keeps policy steady
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank still had room to take already negative rates even lower to prevent global uncertainties from hurting the world’s third-largest economy…
Trump Warns Johnson his Brexit Deal Makes U.S. Trade Deal Hard
Positive aspects of previous session
October performance gaming kept stocks from larger losses
Last-hour performance gaming rally
Negative aspects of previous session
Ugly Chicago PMI induced rabid defensive asset allocation
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
The Fed is in some stage of panic over something that is not entirely clear.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]
First Hour Down; Last Hour Up
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 3046.30; 3023.19
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend for traders]: 3035.88
The Fed balance sheet as of October 30, 2019 is $4.019823 trillion. It was $3.969 trillion the previous week. This is an increase of $50.823 billion – in one week! What is so frightening out there?
Today – The October Employment Report could influence trading if something substantially askew appears. Otherwise, traders will play for the expected start of November rally. The effect of the GM will be important in analyzing the report. Also, one of the largest Birth/Death Model job additions occurs in October. Last year the B/D Model crafted 275k jobs. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
1.06 million NFP NSA were created in October 2018. This was adjusted to 277k. So, the seasonal adjustment was -783k. This reflects the expected hiring for the holidays.
The S&P 500 Index’s Outside Day on Wednesday was decisively resolved to the downside on Thursday. Astute traders will be sensitive to signs that defensive asset allocators are in the market. ESZs are +2.50 at 21:15 ET. Traders expect a rally to start November.
The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 2968; 100-day MA: 2957; 150-day MA: 2929; 200-day MA: 2886
The DJIA 50-day MA: 26,705; 100-day MA: 26,658; 150-day MA: 26,441; 200-day MA: 26,197
S&P 500 Index support: 3035, 3022-25, 3014, 3000, 2991, 2985, 2973-76, 2963, 2955, 2940, 2930-34
Resistance: 3045-50, 3062, 3068-70, 3080
Expected economic data: Oct NFP 85k, Mfg -55k [due to GM strike], Rate 3.6%, Wages 0.3%, Workweek 34.4, Labor Force Participation Rate 63.1%; Markit Oct US Mfg PMI 51.5; ISM Oct Mfg 49, Prices Paid 50; Sept Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; Wards Oct Total Vehicle Sales 17m; Dallas Fed Prez Kaplan 9:30 ET, Fed VCEO Clarida & Fed Gov Quarles & SF Fed Prez Daly 13:00 ET; NY Fed Prez Williams 14:30 ET; Expected earnings: CVX 1.46, CL 1.14, AIG 1.00, XOM .67, DISH .60
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 2502.93 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 2823.03 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive - a close below 2977.97 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative - a close above 3039.56 triggers a buy signal
We mentioned that Horowitz’s report might be delayed due to infighting at the DoJ. Purportedly, the report is being delayed due to UK and Australia related issues. These nations’ intel services, plus Italy, are alleged to have been enlisted by US Spygate figures to ‘get Trump’.
Alexander Downer's secret meeting with FBI led to Trump-Russia inquiry May 17, 2018
The Australian government allowed its former ambassador to the UK, Alexander Downer, to take part in a “highly unusual” meeting with FBI agents in 2016 to share evidence he possessed about Russian meddling in the US presidential election campaign, according to new reports.
It was a breach of diplomatic protocol – which came after “tense deliberations” between Washington and Canberra – that helped to lay the foundations for the special counsel investigation into allegations of collusion between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia, according to the New York Times…
Last night, we heard that Barr has overruled those that advocated for a delay. More rumors from last night: Durham has empaneled a grand jury in Connecticut. Four ex-State Department officials entered on Wednesday and two yesterday. Barr will hold a press conference today.
Late Wednesday night/early Thursday, the MSM reported that a top NSC official would testify that he saw DJT make a ‘quid pro quo’ with Ukraine officials – a demand for a public statement by the Ukrainian president committing to investigate Burisma. Dems and the MSM were euphoric! But it was fake news.
NBC 8:02 CT 10/31/10: Ex-Trump Russia and Europe adviser Morrison arrives to testify in impeachment inquiry - Morrison, who resigned Wednesday, raised concerns about the Trump administration's approach to Ukraine… Morrison will be asked to explain that "sinking feeling" he got when Trump demanded that Ukraine's president investigate former Vice President Biden and meddling in the 2016 election… [Apparently this is all fake news!]
Not only was this more MSM fake news, Morrison debunked the demand allegation as well as [NeverTrumper] Bill Taylor’s claims and testimony to Schiff.
CBS’s @ArdenFarhi: CBS News has learned NSC's Senior Director for European Affairs Tim Morrison was on the Trump-Zelensky call and told the investigating committees, "I want to be clear, I was not concerned that anything illegal was discussed."
NSC Official Tim Morrison to Schiff: ‘I Was Not Concerned That Anything Illegal Was Discussed’ In Trump-Ukraine Phone Call - Tim Morrison, a former National Security Council official under Trump, told Rep. Adam Schiff in testimony today that he was never concerned that Trump discussed anything illegal in his July 25 phone call with the Ukrainian president…
Morrison also pointed out key factual inaccuracies in testimony provided by William Taylor, a State Department official who works in the U.S. embassy in Kiev, Ukraine. Morrison said that, contrary to Taylor’s claims, Morrison never met with the Ukrainian National Security advisor in his private hotel room. Morrison also said Taylor falsely claimed that Ambassador Gordon Sondland demanded a public statement from the Ukrainian president committing to investigate Burisma…
Morrison testified that the transcript of the phone call that was declassified and released by Trump in late September “accurately and completely reflects the substance of the call,” and that he was concerned that the substance of the call would be leaked to the media. Morrison said he immediately informed a NSC lawyer about his concerns that the phone call would be leaked…
Fox’s, soon to be CBS’s, Catherine Herridge reports that Morrison said he was warned about Lt. Col. Vindman’s judgement and testified that Vindman had at least one time violated chain of command regulations, which contradicted Vindman’s statement to Schiff that he always obeyed the chain of command, especially on Ukraine. https://twitter.com/kbq225/status/1189961211099545601
@seanmdav: Tim Morrison's testimony destroys Schiff's narrative, which is why Schiff insists on all these interviews happening in secret. That way he can lie about what witnesses say and prevent the truth from every seeing the light of day.
@JackPosobiec: The NSC official testifying today is essentially accusing Ciaramella, Vindman, and Taylor of lying under oath on various details they included in their accounts of the Trump-Ukraine call
Obviously someone from Team Schiff leaked out damaging but fake news and the MSM swallowed it. Please note that for the past few weeks, the MSM has issued stories that claimed a witness would provide damning testimony on Trump and facilitate an impeachment. It has all been fake news. Either the MSM is fabricating stories to harm Trump or someone on Team Schiff is leaking BS to harm Trump.
@RepDougCollins: "Here's my challenge to Mr. Schiff -- you want to be Ken Starr, be Ken Starr. Come to the Judiciary Committee, be the first witness & take every question asked of you. Starting with your own involvement with the whistleblower. Folks, this ain't over. Get ready."
.@RepDougCollins: "Here's my challenge to Mr. Schiff -- you want to be Ken Starr, be Ken Starr. Come to the Judiciary Committee, be the first witness & take every question asked of you. Starting with your own involvement with the whistleblower. Folks, this ain't over. Get ready." pic.twitter.com/KaXVZ6D9Nw
— The Hill (@thehill) October 31, 2019
John Solomon: Debunking some of the Ukraine scandal myths about Biden and election interference
The Facts: The Ukrainian embassy in Washington confirmed to me this past April that a Democratic National Committee contractor named Alexandra Chalupa did, in fact, solicit dirt on Donald Trump and Paul Manafort during the spring of 2016 in hopes of spurring a pre-election congressional hearing into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia…
The Facts: There are two documented episodes involving Ukrainian government officials’ efforts to influence the 2016 American presidential election… a court last December ruled that a Parliamentary member and a senior Ukrainian law enforcement official improperly tried to influence the U.S. election by releasing financial records in spring and summer 2016 from an investigation into Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s lobbying activities...
The second episode occurred on U.S. soil back in August 2016 when Ukraine’s then-ambassador to Washington, Valeriy Chaly, took the extraordinary step of writing an OpEd in The Hill criticizing GOP nominee Donald Trump and his views on Russia just three months before Election Day….
The Facts: Joe Biden is captured on videotape bragging about his effort to strong-arm Ukraine’s president into firing Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin…
The Facts: This is one of the most egregiously false statements spread by the media. Ukraine’s official case file for Burisma Holdings, provided to me by prosecutors, shows there were two active investigations into the gas firm and its founder Mykola Zlochevsky in early 2016, one involving corruption allegations and the other involving unpaid taxes…
The Facts: Trump could not have forced the Ukrainians into opening a new Burisma investigation in July because the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s office had already done so on March 28, 2019, or three months before the call… [Much more at link]
CIA “Whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella Worked with DNC Operative Alexandra Chalupa in Creation of Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax
Ciaramella worked with a Democratic National Committee operative who dug up dirt on the Trump campaign during the 2016 election, inviting her into the White House for meetings, former White House colleagues said. The operative, Alexandra Chalupa, a Ukrainian-American who supported Hillary Clinton, led an effort to link the Republican campaign to the Russian government. “He knows her. He had her in the White House,” said one former co-worker… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/huge-cia-whistleblower-eric-cairamella-worked-with-dnc-operative-alexandra-chalupa-in-creation-of-trump-russia-collusion-hoax/
@johncardillo: The biggest scandal in DC that is being purposefully buried by the MSM is Ciaramella/Chalupa connection. This relationship is the genesis for much of what we are seeing today and explains Schiff’s hysteria. Barr/Durham are way too close [to revealing the coup]…
Judicial Watch: Documents Reveal Obama State Department Official in Contact with Russian Embassy Political Chief One Month before Trump Inauguration
“The State Department has still not fully explained its role in collecting and disseminating Christopher Steele's false allegations about President Trump's ties to Russia,” said Daily Caller News Foundation President Neil Patel. “The latest documents obtained by Judicial Watch on behalf of The Daily Caller News Foundation raise new and important questions about the role played by Jonathan Winer, who played a key role as Steele's conduit to U.S. diplomats.”…“The Kerry State Department and Jonathan Winer worked hand-in-glove with the Clinton Fusion GPS spy Christopher Steele…
@Barnes_Law: How bad is Deep State politics? Just look at the fake whistleblower for #impeachment: a 30-year old Yale kid. The last group of Yalies to run foreign policy gifted us coups, corruption & decades of disaster (#Dulles). I attended Yale, and no Yale kid I met should be near power.
A few days ago, Biden said: “My daughter is a social worker… I wish I had raised one Republican… to go out and make some real money.” [You can’t make this up!]
Biden says he wishes he had raised one of his kids to "go out and make some real money"
Oh, he didpic.twitter.com/Uy0jShMnPq
— Liz Harrington (@realLizUSA) October 30, 2019