Tableau Software Inc (DATA) Plunges 35% On Disappointing Earnings

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Shares of Tableau Software Inc (DATA) were down a staggering 35% in after hours trading on disappointing earnings, and shocking many investors and analysts. Indeed, shock might be an understatement here. Jefferies stated before the earnings announcement: We expect Tableau Software to report solid 4Q sales, driven by international expansion and strength in big deal activity. There will likely be increased focus on license growth as investors try to determine the trajectory of growth after moderating the past couple quarters. We note DATA’s guidance last Q which showed moderating growth partially due to a tough comp, although we expect a continued robust demand environment for data visualization analytics.

But analysts are not giving up on Tableau Software Inc (DATA) even post earnings.

Tableau Software Inc – UBS states:

In a risk-off tape for high growth software, margin of execution error is the lowest in recent memory, and where investors appear to increasingly be taking a wait-and-see approach in supporting beaten-down, yet high-quality stories. With DATA falling in these cross-hairs, a reiteration of DATA’s +30-33% CY16 topline guide will only suffice on the heels of a sizeable 4Q beat, we think. DATA beat its last 2 4Qs by $14M, $20M (lic $12M, $17M) and with current St lic revs (+33% y/y, +23% q/q) well below +42% 5-yr seasonality we think room for upside remains, particularly given the easier set-up into the print (shares -16% YTD). With peer MSTR recently reporting +20% product growth post ~2yrs of tumult, we see a positive read on demand for DATA and believe the 26ppts (24ppts vs. St) of implied topline decel could prove conservative given: 1) CY15 on track for $100M+ more revs, $30M+ more op profit than original guide (3Q14); 2) 67% more S&M capacity into CY16; 3) broader uptake of server product, driving large deals; and 4) greater partner leverage (Infosys, 7 new OEMs, signed in CY15). We continue to believe the TAM opportunity is large any way you slice it, with room for multiple vendors, and as such think DATA can keep up 30%+ growth in MT.

William Blair opined:

Tableau delivered fourth-quarter results that were ahead of consensus on the top and bottom line, but well below buy-side expectations. Total revenue of $202.8 million (42% growth) came in $2 million ahead of the Street’s $200.8 million estimate. The top-line outperformance allowed the company to deliver operating income of $30.1 million (14.9% margin), which came in $9 million ahead of the Street’s $21 million estimate, and EPS that were $0.17 ahead of expectations. Based on our conversations that suggest the buy side was looking for sales upside of $20 million-plus, we expect shares to be down materially.


Responding to Tableau Software  earnings RBC stated:

Tableau Software  delivered a weaker-than-expected quarter with very little upside to revenue as they beat the high-end of guidance by $2.8M vs their four-quarter average of $14.9M. The company reported 42% revenue growth with billings growth of 36%, compared to the 64% and 54% in Q3/15, respectively. Much of the focus will center around the revenue/billings deceleration and the guidance, which will be given on the call. The prior 2016 revenue outlook was $845M-$865M. The stock is down 30%+ in the after-market.

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