Oil Breaks Records, But Don’t Expect Increases In Supply

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Fundamental Analysis

Oil prices broke new multi-year records on Monday (Oct. 25) because of statements by the Saudi Energy Minister over the weekend, leaving little room for an upcoming increase in supply from OPEC and its allies.

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The latter, interviewed on Saturday (Oct. 23) by Bloomberg on the side-lines of the "Saudi Green Initiative" forum, also added that the crisis was somehow contained but not over yet, and particularly in some regions like Russia, where Moscow is in fact preparing for an eleven-day shutdown of all its non-essential services (restaurants, beauty salons, clothing or furniture stores, gyms, etc.) from this upcoming Thursday, in the hope of stemming the serious outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic that is hitting the country. On the other hand, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria Timipre Sylva, also interviewed by Bloomberg during the same forum, estimated that the market was still too fragile.


WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart)

In summary, we should not expect a further increase in supply beyond the expected level from OPEC+ in the near future, despite a strong recovery in demand, as estimated by Goldman Sachs in a note on Sunday, saying that it could soon reach its pre-Covid-19 level, i.e., 100 million barrels per day!

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Sebastien Bischeri

Oil & Gas Trading Strategist

The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.