Piper Jaffray recently completed its 24th semi-annual teen survey, a national study of >7,700 students. They asked about Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) usage, and about other companies, including Netflix. Piper also asked high school students how they currently rent movies and how they expect to rent movies in the future:
1) 7% indicated they currently use DVD-by-mail; survey suggests 9% will use DVD-bymail in two years.
2) 43% of teens said they download or stream movies, and 59% expect to download or stream movies in two years.
3) Among various movie services that teens expect to use most over the next 5 years, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) topped the list with 55% share, up from 48% in Fall-11 (followed by Redbox at 21%).
• Bottom line: They believe Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) continues to have strong mindshare and remains well positioned for growth in the movie rental category. The company participates directly in DVD-by-mail and movie streaming categories, but does not participate in the segment that will likely be down over the next two years (retail stores). In these two segments (DVD-by-mail & streaming) combined, , Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) has services addressing 50% of teen rental habits (up from 45% one year ago), but this is expected to move to 68% share in two years.
Gates Capital Management's ECF Value Funds have a fantastic track record. The funds (full-name Excess Cash Flow Value Funds), which invest in an event-driven equity and credit strategy Read More
• Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Outpacing Other Digital Competitors; Expected to Still Be Biggest Brand in Movie Rentals In Next 5 Years. They asked teens which movie rental services they expect to use most over the next 5 years, and Netflix topped the list with 55% of respondents. 21% of teens said they will use Redbox most to rent movies over the next 5 years. Note that Netflix’s digital competitors Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Hulu fell far behind Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) among various movie services that teens expect to use most over the next 5 years. This is logical for Hulu, given its focus on current season TV. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), however, will be looking to pick up mindshare with some of the recent content additions (EPIX, etc).
Whitney Tilson is likely a happy camper today. After going short Netflix, he now has a long position.
But there are risks to Netflix becoming the king of rental.
Mainly:
Risk factors include competition, cable/sat video-on-demand, increased subscriber churn rates, and increased costs to acquire subscribers.
Disclosure: No position in any securities mentioned
