India vs. Pakistan: War Tensions Rise Amid New Alliances

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India kills seven Pakistan soldiers, as Islamabad warns of direct military response. India is testing Pakistan’s temper by martyring seven Pakistani soldiers at the Line of Control (LoC).

This is not the first time India carried out unprovoked firing at the LoC, but the attack was more deadly this time. War tensions between the two nuclear-powered nations rise, while experts believe war is very likely.

According to Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistani troops befittingly responded to India’s provocations across the border. India’s unprovoked firing took place in Bhimber sector at LoC on Sunday night.

Pakistan PM warns of military response

While Pakistan’s Foreign Office lodged protest against Indian aggression, India is pushing its hostilities to a new peak level. Last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif warned Islamabad would be responding with force if Indian ceasefire violations continue.

State Minister for Information Maryam Aurangzeb warned India “will be at loss” if it “crosses its boundaries.”

India has increased the intensity and frequency of its unprovoked firings at the LoC. Last week, Indian Border Security Forces martyred three civilians, including a woman and her daughter, according to ISPR.

Pakistanis continue to show their restraint despite the fact that Indian soldiers keep martyring Pakistani forces and civilians. With Pakistani Prime Minister condemning India’s aggression, the Foreign Office summoned Indian High Commissioner to Islamabad.

Whose allies are more powerful: India’s or Pakistan’s?

The news comes just few days after India inked a nuclear deal with Japan. Many Pakistanis say India is now more emboldened by its nuclear deal with Japan, and increases the frequency of its unprovoked firings because it’s under the illusion that it has powerful allies.

Pakistan is not sitting on its hands either. On Monday, Russia announced it’ll host Russian-Chinese-Pakistani talks next month. Both Russia and China have been showing a great deal of support to Pakistan lately.

In fact, there is a theory that China, Russia and Pakistan could form a new superpower triangle and become a grave threat to India and its allies. While China has been a traditional ally of Pakistan for decades, Russia’s stance is somewhat two-faced.

Russia is India’s key weapons supplier, and neither New Delhi nor Moscow want to lose that lucrative partnership because of India-Pakistan regional disputes. India’s military sector has grown a lot thanks to Russia’s advanced weapons, while Moscow has gained tons of profits from its arms deals with New Delhi.

But if Russia has indeed picked Pakistan and China as its two main allies in the region, halting its massive arms trade with India wouldn’t be such bad news for Moscow. Because Pakistan has a huge defense budget and it’s willing to purchase Russia’s weapons in large quantities.

Would Trump go to war for India?

With India signing a nuclear deal with Japan last week, it becomes clear who’s India’s No. 1 ally in the region. And while the U.S. has been India’s ally for long years, Donald Trump’s last week election victory brings uncertainties for both Pakistan and India.

While the U.S. was Pakistan’s ally for five decades, Islamabad lost America’s support after being accused of becoming a terror center. That’s when the U.S. chose India as its main partner in the region. In fact, the two nations have recently finished joint military drills in Ladakh.

Although it’s more likely that Trump will continue U.S. strategic partnership with India, it’s yet unclear to what extent the U.S. President-elect will be willing to help India in case of war with Pakistan.

China and Russia, meanwhile, seem to have a more reliable position towards Islamabad. Apart from holding joint drills and providing Pakistan with arms, the two nations have backed Islamabad diplomatically on several occasions.

So only time will show how many nations are actually willing to fight for India and Pakistan. But how likely is India vs. Pakistan war?

India vs. Pakistan nuclear war poses global threat, warns Pakistan defense minister

Islamabad seems to be understandably on edge over India’s recent increased unprovoked and deadly firings at the LoC.

With Pakistani Prime Minister warning that his country is capable of defending itself militarily, India is going to the extremes by targeting civil population.

It also makes India vs. Pakistan war even more likely now that New Delhi has started using heavy artillery along the LoC.  Speaking to Geo News, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said India initiated deadly heavy artillery firings, while Pakistan is now responding “in the same language.”

The Defense Minister said that at first India limited its ceasefire violations to mortar shelling, but now the nuclear-powered neighbor has resorted to heavy gunfire.

Asif also warned that world leaders must take action against India, because a clash between two nuclear-powered countries poses a global threat.

China, Russia and Pakistan to become superpower axis next month?

Tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad have been deteriorating since 19 Indian soldiers were killed in the disputed Kashmir. India blames Pakistan for the attack, while Islamabad strongly denies the accusations.

While India is trying to provoke Pakistan to a direct military stand-off, Islamabad still hopes to resolve the conflict diplomatically. Pakistan has shown a massive amount of restraint, but India keeps pushing it.

If India’s unprovoked firings continue at this rate, there are two possible scenarios how the India-Pakistan conflict would play out in the next weeks or months.

First, India – emboldened by the newly-signed nuclear deal with Japan – may increase the intensity and frequency of its ceasefire violations and eventually drag Pakistan into an all-out war. For that, India may want to hold off until it finalizes all of its arms purchases from Russia, which may not be happy about providing arms to a nation that is at war with its ally, Pakistan.

Second, more likely, the India-Pakistan conflict could end up becoming a big, messy geopolitical affair. With Trump becoming new U.S. President, both New Delhi and Islamabad hope to see sudden shifts on the geopolitical sphere.

Although it’s more likely that Trump will choose India over Pakistan, it’s still unclear what his long-term plans for the region are. It makes it no less confusing that Trump said he “loves” Pakistan in one of his interviews last week.

Pakistan, meanwhile, enjoys the powerful and unmatched company of Russia and China.

Both being nuclear-powered nations, they have repeatedly expressed their support for Islamabad: diplomatically, militarily and economically. With Moscow hosting the triangle talks next months, it’s expected that the three nations could form a new superpower axis.

Only time will tell what kinds of geopolitical games we’ll witness in the coming days, weeks and months.

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