Estimize Expects Intel To Beat Consensus Handily

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Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) will release its quarterly earnings tomorrow, and even though the slow decline of personal computers threatens its long-term prospects, traders may be too pessimistic about a company that has continued to outperform expectations.

“Over the previous 6 quarters, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) has beaten the Wall Street consensus for EPS and revenue every time. Over the same time period Intel Corporation has beaten the Estimize EPS consensus 5 times and the Estimize Revenue every time,” writes Estimize CEO Leigh Drogen on Yahoo Finance (though it looks like Intel did miss EPS street consensus in 1Q2013 and consensus revenue a couple of times according to Drogen’s chart).

Intel consensus 4q13

Estimize predicts $0.54 EPS

Estimize, which gathers its information from buy-side and independent analysts, expects to see 4Q2013 EPS of $0.54 and revenues of $13.823 billion compared to the Wall Street consensus of $0.52 EPS and $13.725 in revenues. Drogen points out that the street consensus EPS has fallen in recent months from $0.53 even while revenue estimates have risen from $13.423 billion, a change that can be hard to justify.

Revenues will fall unless Intel can innovate

For investors trying to find a short-term play during earnings season, a difference of just $0.02 isn’t that much, as Drogen herself writes, and the spread in analysts opinions is pretty tight (Estimize’s EPS range for Intel is just $0.52 – $0.57). For a company with known headwinds (a slow start moving into the mobile chip market, where ARM has already established itself), there’s always some risk that failed execution could cause the stock price to drop suddenly. Taking that risk for such small upside may not be worth it, and not many people are recommending Intel as a great long-term bargain.

“As the death of the personal computer begins creeping on Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), Intel will need to ramp up the development of its mobile technologies. With chips for personal computers making up a large chunk of Intel’s revenues, expect revenues to fall if Intel fails to innovate,” writes Drogen. She seems confident that Intel will find ways to innovate and continue to be one of the biggest players in the chip market

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