S&P 500 couldn‘t break 4,345 yetsterday, let alone make good progress on 4,315, and as low 4,350s were holding up before the closing bell and premarket, it became justified earlier today to consider the daily glass half full indeed. Not that I would think today‘s new home sales or Richmond manufacturing would sink the markets (temporary rebound off low 4,350s seems probable) – and the weakest link yesterday, HYG with 10y yields (TLT), have an opportunity to catch up today.
Unlike gold, which I called intraday as due for more of a decline – the daily retreat in yields has today best chance of influencing risk taking in stocks rather than make for a buying spree in real assets. Tellingly, USD remains resilient, and not yet near a top, and neither are yields.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,385 held in the squeeze late yesterday, and one more of such kind today (on lower yields and oil) to take ES back above 4,365, may be ahead – depends upon XLY, XLF, XLI and IWM show of strength that must be accompanied by tech (semis weren‘t too weak yesterday).
As a precondition, 4,345 though must hold the way it did yesterday. Even in this seasonally poor week, an intraday squeeze may develop later today again.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is still consolidating sideways, but vulnerable to a short-term pullback or brief dip that would be within hours bought – unless more hawkish Fed messaging is coming today to further stun markets. $88.50 though has pretty good odds of holding for longer.
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