All Clear [CHART]

All Clear [CHART]
Don’t let the title put you off, this bear market warning indicator is actually giving the all clear. This chart featured in the first exclusive Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm on Twitter. It capped off a series of 10 charts which outlined the key macro and fundamental backdrop underpinning the stock market outlook.

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The overall conclusion being that this is a "healthy correction" or in other words a reset of extreme bullish sentiment and rising leverage. Meanwhile, as this chart confirms, the macro backdrop is still solid. Until indicators like this start to turn the risk of a bear market remains low in the immediate term.


The key implication being that this is likely a buying opportunity, even if some more water still needs to go under the bridge. Nevertheless, it is a shot across the bows that we are entering into a new regime of higher volatility as the cycle matures and global central banks turn the corner.
Qualivian Investment Partners 2Q22 Investor Letter

TD1655 Newsletter Placement 1Dear Friends of the Fund, Please find enclosed our Q2 2022 investor letter for your review.  Qualivian reached its four-year mark in December of 2021. We are actively weighing investment proposals. Please refer to our Q2 2022 investor letter for our performance and commentary on the second quarter of 2022. A fact sheet is 

Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.
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