On November 25, three Ukrainian boats were intercepted and seized by the Russian Navy en route to the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. 24 Ukrainian sailors were detained, and both sides are blaming the other for unlawful provocation. What’s likely to happen if the Ukrainian sailors are prosecuted? Is this going to push the two nations to open warfare?
Will Russia-Ukraine Tensions In The Kerch Strait Cause A Full-Scale War?
Could discuss these issues and more I'm happy to be joined in the studio by Young senior fellow at the China Institute of International Studies and [inaudible] the senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization we shall also speak last satellite to a security analyst Pavel Felgenhauer in Moscow. That's a hot topic. Do you think it's going to escalate into Bill?
No I don't think so. The probability of a war is pretty low simply because of Latvia now that they occupied land based coalition. They want to control the Ukranian sailors situation rather than out of control towards the wall. Now Russia obviously takes a chance and they can control war or peace and that as long as a Moscow doesn't want to go to war.
I think seeing the current the reason we escalated to on the other hand with Ukranian sailors is very cautious although the Ukraine hasn't repeated that a call for NATO's Malamud's NATO and the U.S. side to us remain keeping that position say solve the issue.
Several thousand and Nakane Sazen no intention no indication of sending the forces that Ukraine really want.
I think Ukraine is kind of just hanging out there. They really don't have any power. They don't have any weapons. I think they're in a very very bad situation. So the Russians wanted to do more provocation with the Ukranian sailors there's not much countervailing force I do think the Americans in some ways more than NATO may do something I think a lot of it depends on domestic situation Putin's ratings have gone down Trump's in trouble with the special counsel. And so a lot of it could determine on whether or not each is in trouble because the best way to divert attention is just to start a little war.
Pavel let me go to our Russian panelist who's standing by in Moscow for his insightful analysis about the crisis and how voters think the crisis is over until the crisis is obviously not over.
The situation with the Ukranian sailors is rather dangerous. It's not , of course,that war is imminent or an escalation is imminent but the probability is not zero. The West the Americans and the Germans are rather frightened by this situation of the Ukranian sailors especially the Germans and putting in a lot of effort to deescalate. And the Pentagon has drastically increased its intel gathering efforts in the region and their long range drones and manned Rekon intelligence-gathering planes are flying bigger missions.