IceCap Global December 2018 Outlook – The Collapse Of The EU


IceCap Global outlook for the month of December 2018, titled, “Where’s Hugh Grant?”

Hugh Grant

Where’s Hugh Grant?

The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 28 member countries.

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Its stated goals are to promote peace, freedom, and justice. It will also enhance economic, social and territorial cohesion, while also respecting everyone’s rich culture and diversity.

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Q3 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Reality is a different story.

The EU is a bully.

Its short history is littered with continuous, venomous, and contradicting actions against many of its 28 member countries – and all to the benefit of those in Brussels.

It has been documented, that bullies only respond to strength. And today across the EU – the victims of the bullies in Brussels are fighting back.

The political establishments are quickly losing power.

The tide has turned, and it will have a profound effect on the EU, the Eurozone and global financial markets.

Every major shift in economics, politics and social environments creates significant investment opportunities.

This time will be no different.

Actually, Love is all around

The room was deflated. There was no confidence, zero self-esteem, and even the famous stiff upper lip was missing.

Once again, the British were bowing to yet another sovereign state. Nelson would have been furious.

Churchill would have snowballed into a spitting rage. Thatcher would have coiled to launch a counter attack.

Those were the days.

Today, surveying the room, the Prime Minister understood what was at stake. Something had to change. It was time to stand up to the bully.

He would do it for his girlfriend.

He would do it for his sister.

He would do it for his country.

Slowly, there was a deep breath, a pause, and then it happened.

Channelling the spirits of Shakespeare, Churchill, The Beatles, Connery, Potter and both of David Beckham’s feet provided Hugh Grant with the courage to stare down the bully and respond with the one thing that works against a bully – strength.

Hugh Grant

The fictional British PM from the lovely British film, “Love Actually” would go on to lift the self-esteem & self-confidence for all of Britain.

Reality, is a different story.

Britain is once again being bullied and this time by the European Union (EU).

Sadly, neither Nelson, Churchill, Thatcher or even Hugh Grant for that matter are around to stand up for everything that once before put Great in front of Britain.

In some ways, Britain shouldn’t feel too badly about lacking a backbone – after all, since the creation of the EU, Brussels has been bullying everyone who dared to stand in its path towards its dream of an administrative, centrally planned utopia.

In 2008, the Irish voted AGAINST the Lisbon Treaty dealing a major set-back to Brussels and its goal of gradually centralizing control of Europe.

The EU responded by calling the vote a “triumph of ignorance” and demanded the Irish vote again, and again until they got the vote right.

The Irish relented, and voted again to make things right.

In 2012, Italy faced a moment of truth. Its government was completely shut-out of funding markets. No one would lend them a penny. And with the 3rd largest debt load in the world – Italy desperately needed to borrow money, just to repay previous loans that were coming due.

To me you are Perfect

After weeks, and then days and then late night hours, then Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi made the decision that he would pull Italy out of the Eurozone, and devalue a new Italian Lira.

It was the only solution.

Instead – the bullies in Brussels once again took action and before most Italians tasted their morning macchiato, Berlusconi was bullied right out of office and replaced with a Brussels appointed technocrat.

Hugh Grant

Imagine an unelected entity removing a country’s elected head of state. Unthinkable – unless of course, your country is a part of the EU.

The list of EU bullying goes on and on and on.

Portugal – bullied.

Spain – bullied.

Greece – bullied.

Cyrpus – bullied.

But, as everything moves in cycles – the days of Brussels, France and Germany dictating to the rest of the EU are over.

Push-back against the status quo and the political establishment is not only gathering steam – but it is spreading across the EU.

In Spain, Catalonia stood up to the Brussels-controlled Madrid and did the unthinkable – they wanted a peaceful vote on whether Catalans wanted to be an independent country.

Ironically, just as the Irish were encouraged to vote – Brussels and Madrid did everything in their power to discourage Catalonia from voting.

That’s what a bully does – it changes the rules and playing field to always suit itself.

This time however, Brussels' bloody crackdown on a peaceful public vote horrified the internets around the world.

In the end, the bully stopped the “outcome” of the vote, but it left the fight battered in the polls of global public opinion.

Others took notice.

In Hungary, no one wanted any part of the EU migrant policies dictated by Brussels. Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared Angela Merkel unilaterally created the crisis, and his country would have nothing to do with Germany’s problem.

I know it seems an insane person

Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic also agreed with Orban, and united they stood tall, erected walls and told the bullies in Brussels where to go.

This time, the bullies in Brussels relented and gave in to the Eastern European countries.

The Italians were next to keep the momentum going.

Their newly elected coalition is giving Brussels the fits.

Brussels demanded an EU approved budget.

Italy told them it was their money and they’ll spend it and tax it as they wish.

Brussels then told Italy to accept more migrants.

Italy said no, closed their waters and borders and sent all migrant boats to Spain and France.

And no matter how hard the Brussels bullies push back – the Italians, push back even harder.

With Brussels reeling and dealing with these new headaches – it clearly wasn’t prepared for what would happen next.

Hugh Grant

Enter Germany – the original home of the Euro and the real home of the EU central command .

Angela Merkel has always been seen as the de facto leader of the EU.

What Merkel wanted – Merkel got.

And she got 13 years of ruling the EU – outlasting leaders from France (especially France), Italy, Spain, Britain and others.

Yet, as everything (especially politics) runs in cycles – Merkel too is showing she is not immune to the volatile swings and movements engulfing the world.

While many are now familiar with unhappy voters rising to the polls across “other” European countries – most are completely unaware that the same is happening in Germany.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at) - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver
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