We Are On The Edge Of Collapse Or Radical Expansion

We Are On The Edge Of Collapse Or Radical Expansion
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Are We On The Edge Collapse Or Radical Expansion? P/E Ratio Now In 100th Percentile… Between 1970 & 2007 We Have Had 124 Banking & Financial Crises. Buffet Says Stocks Are Cheap Yet Keeps His $110 Billion In Cash…

Choose One: We Are On The Edge Of Collapse Or Radical Expansion – McAlvany Commentary

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Now we're witnessing a divergence a decoupling where the emerging markets are falling apart first. And you know it's amazing to me is it's only in the West. Do we somehow think that we are immune. What this suggests to me is that 2008 and 2009 was not the last time that pride and hubris preceded the fall. Now here are Kevin O'Rourke and David McAlvany.

Welcome to the McAlvany weekly commentary. Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. David this is a profound week. There are several things in the last 17 years that have happened in this country on this particular week that have changed really life in America.

You know as I looked at Barron's in The Wall Street Journal and The Economist there was so many articles that kind of brought those two realities together of 9/11 almost two decades ago. And the end of Lehman Brothers which was just seven years after that and now a decade in the rearview. It's the same week in September just different years so it was September 11th of 2001 of course we all know what happened there and then Lehman was the week of September 11th as well when they closed the doors.

And for me it's a reminder of how quick time passes a day passes and you think nothing of it. You've got months and even years it can slip by almost without notice and sometimes without account. And a decade seems to almost past unimaginably fast. And frankly I don't think of it except for when there is significant events and maybe it's the two that we mentioned or maybe it's a child's birthday or an anniversary but these are the things that mark time in grade school what March time was going back to school in the fall. And then you had the summer months but it was always punctuated by going back to school. Now as an adult it's a little different.

Speaking of going to school my greatest education Dave honestly has been the last 10 years of doing this week with commentary with you. The guests that we've had on it it's hard to believe isn't it that it's been a decade that the Lehman crisis hadn't even occurred when we started this commentary.

That's right. Lehman if I'm not mistaken was in the seventh months of the McAlvany weekly commentary. And now it's over a decade ago. So I mean time passes and it's a reminder to me of what matters most in life as you look at how quickly events occur. Relationships are the core of our human experience. The most important thing that we involve ourselves and so I mean there is the macabre side of me which is time also is a reminder of our mortality again back to relationships I've been married for nearly 20 years. My parents are getting ready to celebrate their 50 year anniversary together. The company just a few more seasons will pass and will pass that five decade mark.

I was talking to my wife the other day and we had just gone to a party that was saying goodbye to friends of ours that we had been in town for 25 years and they're moving now. And we looked at the people and people with this particular going away party. None of us really even had to talk to each other Dave. We were all like family. We had had the ups we had had the downs together and we realized the only thing that really does matter is the relationship you know we really have this here at this company. That's something that we really value because no company has been around 47 years. A lot of the guys here have been here three years some for decades. And you know we've watched each other grow up but we've also watch I mean this is a good example. Lehman Lehman had not happened when we started the commentary we got to Week by week by week see it coming and then talk about it in the rear view mirror. You know I think about the first year that I was here in 1987 that was the year when nothing could go wrong for the stock market I remember reading Fortune magazine. I've said this on the commentary before but Fortune magazine that summer said our stocks too high and they said Now mockingly they said you know there's a new way of valuing.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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